The second half of the MLB season rolls on with a loaded slate of baseball. We have a full 15-game schedule tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to place a bet on the action, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, July 18.
It seems as though every time we talk about having a good day with our home run props, we immediately follow that up with an 0-fer. That happened last night, but as we have said throughout the season, betting on home run prop bets has extreme highs and lows. All you can do after a tough night is get back in the lab and find the players most likely to go deep for tonight.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.
More MLB betting: 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (07/18/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 14-55 (+1.8u)
Luis Robert (+370, FanDuel)
Although the White Sox are just a complete disaster, at least the fans have watched Luis Robert Jr. finally blossom into the megastar he was projected to be. He enters tonight’s game with 27 home runs, a .299 ISO, and a 3.9 fWAR.
Robert is not hitting the ball quite as well as in 2019, but he is still slashing .276/.332/.575 with a .380 wOBA. He also ranks in the top 10% of the league in Barrel% and xSLG, and he is in the top half of the league in xwOBA, max exit velocity, and xBA.
Luis Robert Jr. goes YARD!
He is now 4/4 on the day 🔥
— SleeperMLB (@SleeperMLB) July 16, 2023
In July, Robert is swinging a very hot bat, as he has 14 hits and three home runs in 11 games, including four hits and a bomb in his last game against Atlanta. He gets a favorable matchup against Carlos Carrasco and a brutal Mets pitching staff tonight. Despite putting up eight shutout innings in his last start, Carrasco still has been getting peppered all season, as he ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, xwOBA, HardHit%, average exit velocity, and K%.
For whatever reason, Carrasco has given up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters, and this season is no exception. Robert, while noticeably worse against right-handed pitching, still has a lot of power from that side of the plate, with a .296 ISO and 21 of his 27 home runs this season coming against righties.
Citi Field in New York is not known for being a home run-friendly ballpark, but the wind is blowing out hard toward left-center tonight, and BallParkPal.com gives the White Sox vs. Mets matchup an 18% home run boost tonight.
Kyle Schwarber (+215, FanDuel)
I promise there is no one more fun to watch hit home runs than Kyle Schwarber. When he gets hot at the plate, he is among the most fun players to watch in baseball. Right now, he and the Phillies are screamin’ hot and are a lot of fun to watch and bet on.
He has hit a home run in three-straight games, which usually would scare me off from taking his home run odds tonight, but Schwarber has a very favorable matchup against Julio Teheran tonight. On the season, Teheran ranks in the league’s bottom half in xSLG, Barrel%, K%, chase rate, fastball spin, and fastball velocity.
His sinker is his best pitch, but that has been getting smoked this season, and Schwarber has always favored the hard stuff; this year is no different. Overall, Schwarber has not been a very good offensive player this season, as he slashes .189/.314/.444. However, he still has a 103 wRC+, and despite his Barrel% and HardHit% being down, he still ranks in the top 10% of the league in max exit velocity and Barrel%.
Kyle Schwarber's 2️⃣nd home run of the day gives the Phillies the lead ‼️
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/JDxpwwDakf
— ESPN (@espn) July 16, 2023
Interestingly enough, he has actually been better against left-handed pitching but still has a .241 ISO and 14 home runs against righties this season. It also helps that the wind is blowing out hard toward right-center, and Scwarber has been pulling the ball more than ever this season.
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