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Welcome back to another great day of baseball. We have a loaded slate of action tonight, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to place an MLB wager, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, July 19.

Our MLB home run props cashed another winner last night, with Kyle Schwarber hitting a home run on the first pitch he saw in last night’s game. Tonight, there are a lot of great games to pick from, and our home run predictions feature a rookie on one of the league’s most exciting young teams, as well as a player we have leaned on a lot this season.

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.

More MLB betting: Tuesday’s strikeout props | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Thu (9/28) @ 7:20pm ET CHI Cubs +1.5 -169 +118 u9.5 -110
ATL Braves -1.5 +140 -139 o9.5 -110

MLB Home Run Picks (07/19/2023)

Matt McLain has an intriguing matchup against Ross Stripling.
Matt McLain has an intriguing matchup against Ross Stripling. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

MLB HR Props YTD: 15-56 (+2.95u)

Matt McLain (+430, FanDuel)

Lost in the Elly De La Cruz hype has been a fleet of rookies for the Cincinnati Reds that have produced at a high level, and Matt McLain is undoubtedly one of those players. He enters tonight with a slash of .302/.367/.513 and an OPS of .880.

He also has eight home runs, a .211 ISO, and ranks in the 77th percentile in Barrel%. His production has taken a dip in July, specifically his power numbers. However, over his last three games, he has six hits, including a home run in 13 ABs and a .333 ISO.

He has been better against southpaws as a right-handed hitter, but only slightly. His eight home runs have come at a 50% split on both sides of the plate, and he still has a .829 OPS and a .360 wOBA. Tonight, he will go up against Ross Stripling and a Giants pitching staff that has been crushed the last few days, especially against the Reds.

On the season, Stripling has a 2.39 HR/9, and while his xERA and xFIP point towards some significant regression, he has just not been the same pitcher in his first season with the Giants. His Barrel% is the highest in his career, he is walking more batters than he did last season, and while he is giving up slightly less contact on strikes, his O-Swing% is down almost 10%.

Stripling also has no real constancy with his breaking stuff, and McLain has hit those pitches hard. With the wind blowing out hard tonight in Cincinnati, we may be in store for yet another shootout, which means we should see a lot of home runs. 

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Matt Olson (+240, FanDuel)

Matt Olson‘s career year continues as he has 30 home runs in just 93 games and currently has registered career highs in ISO (.312), Barrel%, and HardHit%. His power numbers have cooled off a bit in July, but the fact that Olson’s ‘cooling off’ means a .413 wOBA, 159 wRC+, and 11.1% Barrel% show just how special he has been for Atlanta this year. 

While he has been striking out at a high clip, he is also walking more this season, and he ranks in the 10% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%%, xwOBA, xSLG, BB%, and Barrel%. Olson has done most of his damage against right-handed pitching, as 26 of his 30 home runs have come against righties, and he has a .351 ISO and 1.010 OPS.

Tonight, he gets a great matchup with Ryne Nelson and a Diamondbacks pitching staff that has struggled lately, which explains their recent slide down the standings. Entering tonight, Nelson ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, K%, chase rate, and Whiff%. 

His fastball has also been demolished this season, and he does not have a single pitch with a positive run value. With Olson being one of the best fastball hitters, he should be in an excellent spot to hit yet another home run tonight. If not against Nelson, Olson can really feast on an Arizona bullpen that ranks 24th in HR/9 and 25th in Barrel%.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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