MLB Home Run Props: Bet on Santander to Go Deep for Thursday, July 20

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Another day of baseball is here, which means it is time to look at the board and find our favorite bets of the night. Although we have a short slate, with most of the action taking place this afternoon, that will not stop us from finding the best MLB wagers, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, July 20. 

With such a short evening slate, our home run prop system only has one play for today. Our picks from last night went 0-2, so we are turning back to a player that we have leaned on a lot this season and has really helped keep us profitable with our home run prop predictions this year. We have evened out since our blistering hot start to the year, but a $100 bettor would still be up $95, tailing our home run picks. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Thursday night.

More MLB betting: Thursday‘s strikeout props | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines | MLB betting promotionsMLB MVP odds | Run line betting

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Sat (4/13) @ 4:05pm ET MIL Brewers +1.5 -169 +120 u8.5 -106
BAL Orioles -1.5 +140 -143 o8.5 -114

MLB Home Run Picks (07/19/2023)

Anthony Santander is having a tremendous season for the now first-place Baltimore Orioles
Anthony Santander is having a tremendous season for the now first-place Baltimore Orioles. (AP Foto/Andy Clayton-King)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

MLB HR Props YTD: 15-58 (+0.95u)

Anthony Santander (+460, FanDuel)

Anthony Santander is having a tremendous season for the now first-place Baltimore Orioles. He enters tonight with a slash of .272/.346/.497 with a 132 wRC+ and 17 home runs, and he has been hitting the ball as hard as he ever has.

Santander ranks in the top 30% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, and Barrel%, and he also is in the top half of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, and Whiff%. He also has been red hot in July, as his walk rate is up to 17.2%, and he is not striking out as much. This month, Santander is slashing .314/.453/.588 with a .275 ISO and a Barrel% of 16.3%.

Playing in Tampa is never easy for a home run hitter, and it does not help that the Rays have Tyler Glasnow on the mound tonight. After a rough start to his season, Glasnow has slowly started to return to form, but he still is giving up a lot of power. He ranks in the 1st percentile in Barrel% and fifth in HardHit%.

Glasnow’s breaking stuff does not have the same bite as it did before Tommy John, and his fastball continues to have some of the best spin and movement, but it has been crushed this year as it carries a .605 xSLG and .419 xwOBA.

Although Santander’s power numbers take a bit of a dip against righties, he still has a .224 ISO and a .821 OPS.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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