MLB Home Run Props: Bet on Santander to Go Deep for Thursday, July 20

Another day of baseball is here, which means it is time to look at the board and find our favorite bets of the night. Although we have a short slate, with most of the action taking place this afternoon, that will not stop us from finding the best MLB wagers, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, July 20. 

With such a short evening slate, our home run prop system only has one play for today. Our picks from last night went 0-2, so we are turning back to a player that we have leaned on a lot this season and has really helped keep us profitable with our home run prop predictions this year. We have evened out since our blistering hot start to the year, but a $100 bettor would still be up $95, tailing our home run picks. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Thursday night.

More MLB betting: Thursday‘s strikeout props | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

MLB Home Run Picks (07/19/2023)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

MLB HR Props YTD: 15-58 (+0.95u)

Anthony Santander (+460, FanDuel)

Anthony Santander is having a tremendous season for the now first-place Baltimore Orioles. He enters tonight with a slash of .272/.346/.497 with a 132 wRC+ and 17 home runs, and he has been hitting the ball as hard as he ever has.

Santander ranks in the top 30% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, and Barrel%, and he also is in the top half of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, and Whiff%. He also has been red hot in July, as his walk rate is up to 17.2%, and he is not striking out as much. This month, Santander is slashing .314/.453/.588 with a .275 ISO and a Barrel% of 16.3%.

💯 career homers for Anthony Santander!

(via @masnOrioles)
pic.twitter.com/OTZpGfJQ1b

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 16, 2023

Playing in Tampa is never easy for a home run hitter, and it does not help that the Rays have Tyler Glasnow on the mound tonight. After a rough start to his season, Glasnow has slowly started to return to form, but he still is giving up a lot of power. He ranks in the 1st percentile in Barrel% and fifth in HardHit%.

Glasnow’s breaking stuff does not have the same bite as it did before Tommy John, and his fastball continues to have some of the best spin and movement, but it has been crushed this year as it carries a .605 xSLG and .419 xwOBA.

Although Santander’s power numbers take a bit of a dip against righties, he still has a .224 ISO and a .821 OPS.

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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

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