Happy Friday, and welcome to a full night of action on the diamond. With a loaded slate of games, bettors have plenty of opportunity to place an MLB wager tonight, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Friday, July 21.
For the first time since the season’s opening week, our home run props are in the red, but only slightly. We only had one pick from last night’s slate, which did not hit. Tonight, we are going with some of the best power hitters in the game playing in excellent conditions to hit a home run.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (07/21/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 15-59 (-0.05u)
Christian Walker (+285, FanDuel)
We are once again riding Great American Ballpark for our home run prop bet, but we are going with a visiting player tonight. According to BallParkPal.com, the wind is blowing out very hard tonight, and they give Diamondbacks vs. Reds a 43% boost on home runs tonight.
Tonight we are going to ride Christian Walker to hit one out. Both these teams have floundered so far in July, especially the offenses. However, despite batting only .176 with a 24.6% K rate, Walker still has been rushing the ball this month.
In 61 PAs in July, Walker has a .294 ISO and a 16.7% Barrel%, 6% higher than his season barrel rate. On the year, Walker ranks in the top 30% of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, Barrel%, and K%. He has continued his success against the fastball and has a 50% HardHit% and a run value of +9 against sliders this year.
Walker will go up against Ben Lively tonight, who has done a nice job limiting hard contact on his breaking stuff. However, he ranks in the 38th percentile in Barrel% and the bottom 25% in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and chase rate.
Lively also has a 1.78 HR/9 and is due for some regression. Even though Walker has struggled this month, he is still hitting the ball very hard and is much stronger against right-handed pitching.
Giancarlo Stanton (+300, FanDuel)
It is hard to believe that we have been doing these MLB home run prop predictions all season, and not once have we used Giancarlo Stanton. He is undoubtedly not the power-hitter he once was, but he still absolutely crushes the baseball and is swinging a hot bat entering tonight.
Not only does he have a good matchup against a weak Kansas City Royals pitching staff, but Stanton has a .333 ISO and five home runs in 60 PAs this month. While his power numbers are down across the board for the season, a down season for Stanton includes a 15.9% Barrel% and a 51.6% HardHit%.
Stanton also has been making more contact on pitches in and out of the zone, and his swinging strike rate is down almost 2% this season. He is walking less, and if the season ended today, this would be the first year he had under a 100 wRC+, but he has been crushing the ball lately. With a favorable matchup against Alec Marsh, Stanton should be in a great spot to hit another one out tonight.
Marsh has only pitched 15 innings in the MLB, and they have not gone that great. He has given up five home runs and has a 13.9% Barrel%. His fastball shows a lot of promise, as it ranks in the 94th percentile in spin, but he has been getting demolished in his short career, and Stanton is not the guy you want to face if you are prone to hard contact.
This game also has a high home run boost from BallParkPal.com, and with Stanton swinging a powerful bat, that boost should give us enough for Stanton to hit yet another bomb tonight.
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