Welcome back to another great week of baseball. There are 10 games on the schedule tonight, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to place MLB wagers, including anytime home runs bets. Here, we break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Monday, July 24.
There is nothing more to say than we are ice-cold with our home run prop bets. For the first time this season, we are down two units, which is not all that terrible in the grand scheme of things, but losing is never fun. Luckily, we have a fresh slate of games today, and we have identified the three best home run props of the night, including a player we have leaned on a lot this season.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Monday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (07/24/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
MLB HR Props YTD: 15-61 (-2.05u)
Freddie Freeman (+400, BetMGM)
Freddie Freeman is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career, and he has taken his game to another level in July. In 17 games played this month, Freeman is slashing .382/.468/.779 with a 1.248 OPS and six home runs. He also has a .397 ISO in July and a Barrel% of 14.8%.
While this is not the best power-hitting season of his career, Freeman still ranks in the top 1% of the league in xwOBA and xSLG, and Freeman is in the 84th percentile in Barrel%, and the top half of the league in HardHit% and average exit velocity.
He has not hit the ball quite as hard against righties, but Freeman has a .408 wOBA and a 161 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Freeman also has a .969 OPS, and he has a favorable matchup on Monday against Jose Berrios, a righty who gives up a lot of hard contact.
Berrios has cut down on his Barrel% from his disastrous 2022 season, and he enters tonight with a respectable 3.39 ERA. However, his xERA of 4.59 is concerning, and Berrios still ranks in the 35th percentile in Barrel% and the bottom 30% in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA.
Even if Freeman does not get one off Berrios, Toronto’s bullpen, while solid, ranks third in HR/9, and it has a 7.5% Barrel%. With how well Freeman is swinging the bat, he should be in an excellent spot to hit one off a starter who gives up a lot of hard contact.
Joey Votto (+370, FanDuel)
Despite hitting only .189 through 26 games, Joey Votto is tearing the cover off the ball. He enters tonight’s colossal matchup against the Brewers with a 17.5% Barrel%, .314 ISO, and a wOBA of .348. Votto also has done very well against right-handed pitching this season, with a .364 ISO and .362 wOBA.
Overall, Votto has regressed offensively, as he is not making as much contact on pitches in the zone, and his swinging strike rate is up to 13.9%. His xSLG and xwOBA point toward regression, but he has a favorable matchup tonight.
The Brewers send out Colin Rea, who is putting up career numbers after pitching in Japan last season. The problem is career numbers for Rea include a 4.64 ERA and a 0.7 fWAR. While he is due for some slight positive regression, Rea is not getting guys to whiff, and while his contact rate on pitches in the zone is way down, it still sits at 86.6%.
Rea also has a .267 ISO against his last 50 lefties faced, and at home this season, he has given up nine home runs and has a 5.37 FIP. It also helps that Votto has been much better on the road, with a .450 wOBA and a .452 ISO.
Josh Naylor (+500, FanDuel)
At this point, Josh Naylor looks like the season’s biggest All-Star snub. He has flown under the radar the entire season because of Cleveland’s struggles, but he enters tonight with a .357 wOBA and has already surpassed his fWAR from last season in 34 fewer games.
He is not walking as much, and his swinging strike rate is up to 10.2%, but he is making more contact on pitches in and out of the zone, and his xSLG and xwOBA point toward a slight uptick in production.
Naylor is not a great power-hitter, as he has been good at spraying the ball around the field. However, he still ranks in the top 40% of the league in Barrel% and HardHit%. His power numbers are a little better on the road, but he still has a .354 wOBA and .847 OPS at Progressive Field.
Entering the season, the talk around Naylor was whether he would even play against left-handed pitchers. In 2022, which was still a good season for Naylor, he slashed .173/.276/.236 with one home run and only 19 hits in 110 ABs against lefties. So far this season, Naylor is batting .275 against southpaws with a .325 wOBA and a 107 wRC+.
On Monday, he gets Ryan Yarbrough and a brutal Kansas City pitching staff. While Yarbrough has cut down on his HR/9 and is due for positive regression, he still allows a high Barrel% and is giving up more contact on strikes while getting fewer swings out of the zone.
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