MLB Home Run Props: Subway Series Holds Best HR Picks for Tonight, July 25

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We have a full 15-game slate of action on the diamond tonight, giving bettors plenty of opportunity to make some MLB wagers, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our two favorite MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday, July 25.

Today’s action: MLB HR prop picks for Thursday, July 27 | Today’s MLB strikeout props

Last night provided us with another 0-fer for our home run picks. Luckily, we have some great matchups to pick from, including the Subway Series, with the New York Mets heading to the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday night.

More MLB betting2023 World Series oddsTuesday’s strikeout prop picksAL Cy Young odds |  MLB MVP odds | MLB betting promotions | Run line betting

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the MLB game lines from the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Tue (4/23) @ 7:05pm ET OAK Athletics +1.5 -125 +184 u7.5 -105
NY Yankees -1.5 +104 -222 o7.5 -115

MLB Home Run Picks (07/25/2023)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

MLB HR Props YTD: 15-64 (-5.05u)

Francisco Lindor (+400, FanDuel)

The Mets have been shockingly bad this year, coming off a 100-win 2022 season. Regression was likely with the amount of luck New York had last season, but this team is just downright awful, and that is after adding a few big names in the offseason.

It also does not help that the Francisco Lindor trade has not panned out quite as many hoped, but that is not to say that Lindor is a lousy player. Sure, he is striking out more than ever, and he enters tonight with a .226 BA. However, he still is a net-positive offensive player, with a 111 wRC+, and Lindor ranks in the top 25% of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and Barrel%.

He also has the highest ISO in his Mets career (.221) and the highest since 2019, which could be considered his last “MVP-caliber” season in terms of offensive production. Luckily, he is hitting the ball harder than ever, as he is setting career-highs in Barrel% (11.7%), average exit velocity (91.6 mph), HardHit% (45.2%), and launch angle (18.7).

It will be a warm and windy evening in the Bronx tonight, and BallParkPal.com gives the Subway Series a 20% boost on home runs tonight due to park factor. It also helps that this is a left-handed hitter’s ballpark, and Lindor will start this game on the left side of the batter’s box with Domingo German on the mound.

Although he recorded the first perfect game since 2012, German has not been all that great this year. He enters tonight with a 4.52 ERA and a career-high 1.57 HR/9. While his xERA and xFIP point towards a slight uptick in production, he is giving up more hard contact than ever, and he has gotten tattooed at Yankee Stadium.

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Giancarlo Stanton (+333 BetMGM)

We are doubling up on the Subway Series for our home run picks tonight. We already have a home run prediction for the Mets, and for the Bronx Bombers, we are riding with Giancarlo Stanton to hit one out.

Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton is one of our best MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday July, 25, 2023.
Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton is congratulated by Anthony Rizzo after going long against the Rockies on July 15 (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

At no point in his Yankee career has Stanton been the same type of player that he was in Miami. In his last season with the Marlins, Stanton posted a 6.8 fWAR en route to the NL MVP. In his six seasons in New York, he has a combined 8.7 fWAR, and 4.2 of that came in his first season with the Yankees.

However, he still hits the ball very hard and is a threat to go on a homer streak at any moment. He has not been swinging the hottest bat this month, but he still has six home runs, a .317 ISO, and a 14% Barrel% in July. Stanton is also striking out a lot less this season, and he is making 5% more contact on pitches in the zone while cutting down on his swinging strike rate by 2%.

The Mets send out Justin Verlander to get the start tonight, and while he has been solid through his last four starts, Verlander has struggled on the road this year. In 33.0 IP on the road, Verlander has a 5.18 ERA, and his strikeout rate is 7% less compared to his starts at Citi Field.

He has also struggled against righties this season, allowing seven home runs. This should be a high-scoring night with two pitchers who have had some issues this season and two offenses prone to hitting a lot of home runs.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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