MLB Home Run Props: Olson, Freeman Headline Picks for Wednesday, July 26

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We have a loaded slate of action on the diamond tonight, with all 30 teams in action. There are games on all day, giving bettors plenty of opportunity to place some wagers, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our favorite MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday, July 26. 

Our home run props did not produce a winner last night, and it is no secret that we are in a massive slump. Luckily, two of our most profitable players from our MLB home run picks this season have favorable matchups tonight. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday night.

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Fri (4/19) @ 7:20pm ET TEX Rangers +1.5 -125 +158 u9.5 -114
ATL Braves -1.5 +104 -189 o9.5 -106
Fri (4/19) @ 10:10pm ET NY Mets +1.5 -127 +168 u8.5 -118
LA Dodgers -1.5 +105 -200 o8.5 -104

MLB Home Run Picks (07/26/2023)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

Freddie Freeman (+400, FanDuel)

While he did hit a home run last night, which always makes me nervous when picking that same player to hit a home run the next day, Freddie Freeman has been money at the plate this season and has a great matchup on Wednesday.

Freeman is having his best season as a Dodger, slashing .328/.410/.584 with a 5.0 fWAR, and he has already matched his total home runs from last season in 59 fewer games. While he is striking out at a high clip this season, he also has his highest ISO and Barrel% since his 2020 MVP season.

On the season, Freeman ranks in the top 2% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. Freeman also is in the 83rd percentile in Barrel% and the league’s top half in average exit velocity, HardHit%, and Whiff%.

The Dodgers had a massive come-back victory over a solid Toronto Blue Jays team last night. While today’s game with the Jays will not be much easier, especially with lefty Yusei Kikuchi on the mound, this is actually a good matchup for a guy like Freeman.

Kikuchi started the season strong, and he does have a good fastball. However, he also ranks in the 17th percentile in Barrel% and the bottom 20% of the league in HardHit%, average exit velocity, and xSLG. He also has gotten roughed up in his last five starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 26.1 IP.

For whatever reason, Kikuchi has given up more power to left-handed hitters in 2023, and Freeman is one of the best left-on-left hitters in baseball. It also helps that Freeman is hitting fastballs as hard as ever, and Kikuchi’s fastball, while still electric, is getting hit hard this season.

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Matt Olson (+300, FanDuel)

If you have been following our MLB home run picks all season, you know Matt Olson has appeared more than anyone. Through 99 games, he has 32 home runs, compared to 34 in 162 last season, and his walk rate is as high as it has ever been in an entire season.

Matt Olson makes another one of his frequent appearances in our MLB home run prop picks.
Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Olson has also been hitting the ball harder than ever. He enters tonight with career-highs in ISO (.315), Barrel%, max exit velocity, and HardHit%. His xSLG, which ranks in the 97th percentile, also points towards an uptick in production. While he is striking out more than ever, he also ranks in the 93rd percentile in BB% and is in the top half of the league in chase rate.

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Atlanta Braves have struggled. But Olson still has been mashing the ball, with three home runs and a .314 ISO in 43 PAs. He does have a tough matchup against one of Boston’s best young arms in Brayan Bello. However, Olson has mashed right-handed pitching this season. In 284 ABs against righties, Olson slashes .264/.383/.609 with a .993 OPS and a .345 ISO.

Bello has struggled in his three starts this month, allowing 11 earned runs on six home runs in 17.0 IP. He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in Barrel%, HardHit%, and xSLG, and against left-handed hitting, he has given up eight home runs.

With this game at Fenway Park, Olson has a real advantage as a left-handed hitter. The wind will also be blowing out hard toward right-center, and BallParkPal.com gives this game an 11% home run boost. If anyone is to benefit from that type of boost, it is Olson, and he should be in an excellent spot to hit one deep tonight.

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1678 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,678 if both our picks hit. 

Keep in mind that the odds are very high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season. 

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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