MLB Home Run Props: Bet On Morel, Alonso To Go Deep Thursday

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Welcome back to another night of baseball. We have an unusually small slate tonight, with only five games on the schedule. However, there are still plenty of betting opportunities in the MLB, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, July 27.

Tonight’s action: MLB Home Run Props for Friday, July 28  | Friday’s MLB Strikeout Props

Our home run picks from last night did not produce a winner, and with only a handful of games to pick from tonight, finding a home run prop is challenging. While there are not a lot of favorable matchups to explore, some of the game’s best hitters are on the field tonight, and they have some great odds to hit a home run. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Thursday night.

More MLB bettingStrikeout prop picks for Thursday | NL Cy Young odds 2023 | AL Cy Young odds | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Wed (4/24) @ 3:45pm ET NY Mets +1.5 -204 +112 o7.5 -120
SF Giants -1.5 +168 -132 u7.5 -102
Wed (4/24) @ 7:40pm ET HOU Astros -1.5 +176 -106 u8 -115
CHI Cubs +1.5 -213 -110 o8 -105

MLB Home Run Picks (07/27/2023)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

Christopher Morel (+460, FanDuel)

Christopher Morel has really blossomed into a nice young piece for a surging Cubs team. He enters tonight’s game with a slash of .272/.333/.539, with 16 home runs and a 133 wRC+. He also has a .267 ISO and a .873 OPS.

While he is also a big strikeout guy, Morel ranks in the 93rd percentile in Barrel% and the top 20% of the league in average exit velo, HardHit%, and xSLG. Morel has lost his power stroke this month, as his ISO is down to .125, and he only has two home runs. However, his Barrel% still sits at 12.5%, and Morel is a plus-value offensive player as his wOBA sits at .327, and he has a 105 wRC+.

Tonight, he plays in a ballpark that ranks toward the bottom in HR factor, according to Park Factor by Statcast. However, the Cardinals send out Miles Mikolas to get the start, which is a favorable matchup for Morel.

Mikolas has cut down on his HR/9, but his ERA and FIP are both up, and his xERA and xFIP point toward even more regression. He is also allowing the most barrels of his career, and Mikolas ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, K%, Whiff%, average exit velo, hardHit%, and xSLG.

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Pete Alonso (+300, FanDuel)

Pete Alonso is having one of the worst offensive seasons of his career. He is striking out more this year, and his slash numbers are down across the board. Alonso is also making less contact on strikes, and his BABIP is down to only .197. 

However, he is hitting the ball very hard this season. While he is not on the pace he set in his incredible rookie season, Alonso has a 14.6% Barrel%, .283 ISO, and despite a slash of only .216/.313/.499, he still has a 124 wRC+, and a 1.7 fWAR. 

Mets slugger Pete Alonso is one of our MLB prop picks for Thursday, July 27, 2023.
New York Mets’ Pete Alonso (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

On the season, Alonso ranks in the 92nd percentile in xwOBA and Barrel%. Despite an uptick in his K%, he also ranks in the top half of the league in K% and chase rate. While his power numbers are slightly down this month, he still has a high Barrel% and ISO and has been a big reason the Mets have been playing good ball coming out of the break. 

Tonight, he has a matchup against a terrible Washington Nationals team, with one of their best young talents in Josiah Gray getting the start. The 25-year-old, who came over in the Max Scherzer trade in 2021, has significantly cut down on his Barrel% and HR/9, and his ERA sits at a respectable 3.45. 

However, his walk rate still sits at 4.09, and his xERA and xFIP point towards some significant regression. Over his last three starts, he has given up three home runs, and his strikeout numbers keep falling. Gray has also allowed more power to right-handed hitters this season, and Alonso is one of the best right-on-right hitters in the game in terms of power. 

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2140 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,140 if both Morel and Alonso go deep tonight.

Keep in mind that the odds are very high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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