MLB Home Run Props: Bet on Aaron Judge to Go Deep in Return on Friday, July 28

Happy Friday, and welcome back for another great night of baseball. We have a full slate of action tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to place MLB wagers, including any time home run bets. Here, we break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Friday, July 28.

Our home run picks did not produce a winner last night, but we have some great matchups to take advantage of tonight. For our Friday home run predictions, we are going back to a player we have leaned on a lot this season, as well as one of the game’s best power hitters who is returning to action.

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

MLB Home Run Picks (07/28/2023)

Remember that the odds for home run props will change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run predictions may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

Juan Soto (+430, FanDuel)

The Juan Soto era in San Diego may be in its final days, but Soto is still one of the best offensive players in baseball and is in an excellent spot to hit a home run tonight. While he is batting only .214 in July, he also has a .314 ISO, and his Barrel% is up to 17.5% this month.

Soto also has six home runs in July, and on the season, he ranks in the 86th percentile in Barrel% and the 100th percentile in HardHit%. While he is hitting the ball harder than ever this season, his strikeout rate is up 5%, and his swinging strike rate is also up.

After a down season in 2022, Soto has been much better at the plate overall. He is making more contact on strikes, taking fewer swings on balls out of the zone, and walking more, which is a scary thought for opposing pitchers. Soto has some of the best plate discipline you will ever see, which allows him to be patient in his approach and pick his pitches.

However, he is noticeably better against right-handed pitching. In 241 ABs against righties, Soto has a slash of .286/.443/.568 with a 1.011 OPS and a 173 wRC+. When he goes against lefties, those numbers are down to .209/.358/.355 with a .712 OPS and a 107 wRC+.

He has a tough matchup tonight against the Texas Rangers and Dane Dunning, who is having the best season of his career. He enters tonight with a 3.18 ERA in 102 IP and has significantly reduced his walk rate. The problem is Dunning is due for some significant regression, as his xERA of 4.95 and xFIP of 4.71 are troubling against this Padres lineup.

Dunning also ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, K%, chase rate, and Whiff%. He also has not been very good against left-handed hitting, as Dunning has allowed a slash of .278/.340/.432 with six home runs and a 24.8% line drive rate.

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Aaron Judge (+390, FanDuel)

We are the coldest we have ever been for our MLB home run picks this season. It feels as though we have not given out a winner in weeks. So, with the return of one of the game’s best power hitters, we will take a chance on Aaron Judge‘s odds of hitting a home run tonight.

Judge has not played since June 3 after injuring his toe while running into the right-field wall at Dodger Stadium. Prior to the injury, he was swinging the bat just as well as he did in his 2022 MVP season. In 49 games this year, Judge has a slash of .291/.404/.674 with a 1.078 OPS.

He also has a higher ISO (.383), xwOBA (.476), Barrel% (30.4%), and HardHit% (62.6%) than he did last year. Simply put, Judge was absolutely killing the ball this season and doing it at a career-high pace.

Obviously, not playing for almost two months will come with some rust, and he has a tough matchup against the Orioles at Camden Yards. Not only is Baltimore a tough place to hit one out after the fences were moved back a few years ago, but the Orioles have one of their best young arms getting the start in Grayson Rodriguez, and the O’s bullpen is as elite as any in the game.

Rodriguez, though, has struggled in his first season, with a 6.91 ERA and 5.28 FIP in 56.0 IP. While his xERA and xFIP point towards some positive regression, Rodriguez also has a 2.09 HR/9 and allows an 11.7% Barrel%. 

Judge is also one of the best right-on-right hitters in baseball, and that is especially true this season. Before his injury, he had a slash of .319/.429/.757 with a 1.186 OPS and .438 ISO against right-handed pitching. 

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2497 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,497 if both Soto and Judge go deep.

Keep in mind that the odds are very high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

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