Welcome back to another exciting week of baseball. We have a 10-game slate tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to place some MLB wagers, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our best MLB home run props picks for Monday, July 31.
The trade deadline has every baseball fan’s attention, but there are games to be played and bets to be made. Our MLB home run picks have been as cold as ever this season, but we have the game’s best player on our home run predictions card today and a solid power-hitter with some great value.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Monday night.
More MLB betting: Strikeout prop picks for Monday | NL Cy Young odds 2023 | AL Cy Young odds | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (07/31/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Brandon Lowe (+400, FanDuel)
Brandon Lowe is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career, and the Rays need him to keep that up as they battle for the AL East title. While he is batting only .226 on the season and is striking out at a high clip, he has been crushing the ball.
He enters tonight’s game ranked in the 75th percentile in Barrel% and 70th percentile in HardHit%. While he is not hitting the ball quite as hard as in his terrific 2021 campaign, he has increased his contact rate on pitches in the zone by 6%, and his swinging strike rate is down 2%.
While his strikeout numbers are concerning, especially against Domingo German, who has the highest K/9 in a season since 2019, Lowe has been on fire this month. In 73 PAs in July, Lowe is slashing .286/.384/.556 with a .270 ISO and a .401 wOBA. His Barrel% is down this month, but only slightly, and he still has been able to hit home runs, including two in his last three games.
As a left-handed batter, Lowe has a significant advantage at Yankee Stadium with that short right-field wall. Also, German is giving up the most hard contact and barrels of his career. While he achieved perfection earlier this season, German has not been effective this year. In his four starts this month, German has given up five home runs in 22.1 IP and has a 4.40 FIP.
Even if Lowe does not hit one out against German, the Yankees’ bullpen has regressed majorly this month, as they have a 1.34 HR/9.
Shohei Ohtani (+285, FanDuel)
Betting on Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run every night is getting a little predictable. But if he keeps mashing dingers every game, we will keep betting on him.
There is no debate anymore: Ohtani is the best player in baseball, and some are even calling him the best baseball player of all time, and rightfully so. Ohtani has been the best player in the game for a few years now, and he is having the best season of his career in 2023.
He enters tonight’s game with a .441 wOBA and leads all of baseball with an fWAR of 7.3. For context, the difference between Ohtani and second place in fWAR (Ronald Acuna Jr., 5.6) is the same as the difference between Acuna and Jose Ramirez (3.9), who is eighth in fWAR.
Ohtani has career highs in ISO (.379), SLG (.680), and wRC+ (185). While he is not hitting the ball quite as hard as he did in his 2021 MVP season, he still ranks in the top 4% of the league in Barrel% and HardHit%. Ohtani also ranks in the top 5% of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, xBA, average exit velocity, and BB%.
Part of his success at the plate this season is due to how hard he is hitting breaking balls. Last season, he was pretty ineffective against the changeup and slider. This season, he has a positive run value and increased his HardHit% against both pitches.
While he has a tough matchup against Charlie Morton, who has not allowed much hard contact this season, it does not matter who is pitching to Ohtani. He is swinging the bat so well right now that if you can find a reasonable price on Ohtani’s odds of hitting a home run tonight, it is well worth it.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1825 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,825 if Ohtani and Lowe go deep tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are very high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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