Happy trade deadline day, and welcome back to another full day of action on the diamond. We have a 15-game slate today, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to place some winning MLB wagers, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our favorite MLB home run props picks for Tuesday, Aug. 1.
Finally, after a bit of a dry spell, our MLB home run props produced a winner last night, thanks to Brandon Lowe’s first-inning blast at Yankee Stadium. While we are still in the negative for our home run props this season, we have some momentum and an excellent slate of games to pick from.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday night.
More MLB betting: Strikeout prop picks for Tuesday | NL Cy Young odds 2023 | AL Cy Young odds | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/01/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Matt Olson (+320, FanDuel)
We have used Matt Olson more than any other player for our home run picks this season. He has not hit a home run in the last two times we predicted him to do so, but he is swinging a scorching-hot bat entering this game.
Tonight, Olson and the Braves go up against Patrick Sandoval and a terrible Angels bullpen. On the season, Sandoval has a 4.13 ERA, and while he does not give up a lot of hard contact, his strikeout rate is down, and his walk rate is up. Sandoval’s xERA and xFIP also point toward some regression, and he is giving up more contact on strikes while getting fewer swings out of the zone.
Luckily, Sandoval does not give up many home runs or barrels, as he ranks in the 71st percentile in Barrel% and 76th percentile in HardHit%. However, Olson has been hitting the ball harder than ever this season and has been on fire at the plate recently.
Over his last 10 games, Olson is slashing .343/.415/.886 with a .513 wOBA and six home runs in just 41 PAs. His Barrel% is slightly down from his season average of 18.5%, but Olson has an incredible 80% HardHit% over his last 10, with a 101.3 MPH average exit velocity.
While Olson is noticeably worse against left-handed pitching, he still hits the ball hard against southpaws. Even if Olson does not hit one out against Sandoval, the Angels bullpen is ranked toward the bottom of the league in almost every stat, especially power numbers.
Jorge Soler (+340, FanDuel)
It has been a while since we have bet on Jorge Soler to hit a home run. However, he has a great matchup to hit one out tonight. Soler was the hottest player in baseball through May, and he ended the month on a five-game homer streak, which we took advantage of a few times.
Since then, it has been a different story. In 51 games since his five-game home run streak, Soler has only eight home runs. He still has been a net-positive offensive player with a .323 wOBA and a 105 wRC+, but his power numbers have dipped significantly.
Luckily, Soler still hits the ball hard, as he is ranked in the top 7% of the league in Barrel% and max exit velocity. He also ranks in the top 30% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, BB%, and xSLG.
Tonight, he is going up against a guy who is having a tough season in Ranger Suarez. After his incredible 2021 season, Suarez has regressed in every season, including this one, as he has a 4.22 ERA and has gotten hit hard this year. Suarez ranks in the league’s bottom half in Barrel%, xwOBA, xSLG, xBA, chase rate, BB%, and Whiff%.
His fastball and sinker have also regressed at alarming rates, and they are getting smoked this season. Even though Soler has regressed significantly since his hot start, he still is hitting the ball hard, and he has always been a great fastball hitter, especially this season, where his HardHit% against four-seamers and sinkers is above 50%.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1748 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,748 if Olson and Soler go deep tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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