Welcome back to another great day of baseball. A full slate of games today starting this afternoon gives bettors plenty of chances to wager on MLB, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, Aug. 2.
Our home run picks did not produce a winner last night, but both players had good nights at the plate. It seems that all season, when we predict a player to hit a home run, they usually end up going deep a day or two later. That is the reality when betting on MLB home run props. The odds are high for a reason, and you should expect to struggle at times throughout the season.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday night.
More MLB betting: MLB strikeout prop picks for Wednesday| NL Cy Young odds 2023 | AL Cy Young odds | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/02/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Kyle Schwarber (+390, FanDuel)
This season for the Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber has been odd. While his numbers are down across the board, and he is batting only .184, he has been a net-positive offensively for the Phillies. His hard-hit numbers are down by an alarming rate, but he still ranks in the 90th percentile in Barrel% and 73rd percentile in HardHit% and xSLG.
Since the All-Star break, Schwarber is still batting below the Mendoza line, but he has a .362 wOBA, .279 ISO, and 126 wRC+. Schwarber also has five home runs in that same period and is seeing the ball very well at the plate with a 25% BB%, and he has cut down on his swinging strike rate by 3%.
While he has a matchup against a left-handed pitcher, Schwarber has hit the ball harder against southpaws this season. LoanDepot Park is not necessarily a hitter-friendly ballpark, but it favors the left-handed hitter, and Schwarber can really tee off against tonight’s starter, Braxton Garrett.
On the season, Garrett is ranked in the bottom 25% of the league in Barrel%, xSLG, xBA, HardHit%, average exit velocity, fastball spin & velocity, and curve spin. He has done an excellent job limiting walks and striking guys out, but he is giving up more hard hits and barrels this season. While he is drawing less contact on pitches in the zone, he is not avoiding barrels as he has shown he could in the past.
Miami’s bullpen has been solid this season, but it is prone to giving up some hard contact. Schwarber may be having a down season to his standards, but he is still mashing the ball and is in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
Brandon Lowe (+450, FanDuel)
Brandon Lowe cashed a home run prop ticket for us earlier this week, and we are going back to him once again. The Tampa Bay Rays have demolished the Yankees this series, and although the Cy Young frontrunner Gerrit Cole is on the mound for New York, he has been due for some regression.
Cole has been great for the Yankees this season, cutting his HR/9 by almost half, and he has been limiting barrels this year, which he has struggled with in his time with New York. However, he still ranks in the 50th percentile in Barrel% and 41st in HardHit%.
Over his last five starts, Cole is allowing only a 3.8% Barrel%, but those starts came against some pretty terrible offenses, including Kansas City and Colorado. He still has been lights out all season but is still prone to giving up hard contact, and with how well Lowe is swinging the bat, he should be able to get another one tonight.
Lowe has been hitting the ball very hard this season. He ranks in the top 25% in HardHit% and Barrel%, and Lowe is also ranked in the top half of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, and average exit velocity.
He has also been swinging a scorching-hot bat since the All-Star break. In 67 PAs since the break, Lowe is slashing .288/.373/.593 with a .409 wOBA and a 171 wRC+. Not only has Lowe been great at making contact, but he also has been smoking the ball, with a 12.2% Barrel% and a .305 ISO in his last 17 games.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2595 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,595 if both players hit a home run tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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