MLB Home Run Props: Our Best HR Picks for Thursday, Aug. 3

Another day of baseball has arrived, and we have an excellent 11-game slate to enjoy tonight. The action begins this afternoon, continuing into the late hours of the night, which gives bettors plenty of chances to wager on some MLB, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, Aug. 3.

It is no secret our home run picks have struggled in recent weeks, but we are still finding some winners, and we have two great plays tonight.

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Thursday night.

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

MLB Home Run Picks (08/03/2023)

Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

Yordan Alvarez (+300, FanDuel)

The Houston Astros have slowly rounded back to form after lying in the weeds for the season’s first few months. Part of that comes from the pitching coming alive, and the re-acquisition of Justin Verlander certainly helps. However, a lot of credit needs to go to Yordan Alvarez, who continues to be one of the best pound-for-pound hitters in baseball.

Alvarez struggled to begin the season, and he missed a lot of time early due to injury. However, he is mashing the ball and has a favorable matchup tonight. While Alvarez has played only 14 games since June 1, in those games, he has a slash of .313/.400/.667 with a .446 wOBA and a 192 wRC+. He also has a .354 ISO, and while his Barrel% is down compared to his standards, it still sits at an incredible 18.4%.

For the season, Alvarez ranks in the top 3% of the league in xwOBA, average exit velocity, HardHit%, xSLG, and Barrel%. He is striking out at a slightly higher clip but still ranks in the top half of the league in Whiff% and chase rate.

If you have been following our daily home run props, you know we love taking power-hitting lefties at Yankee Stadium. According to Park Factor by Statcast, Yankee Stadium ranks third in HR factor for left-handed hitters.

It also helps that the Yankees have Clarke Schmidt getting the start tonight. While he is due for some slight positive regression, Schmidt has almost doubled his HR/9 this season, and he ranks in the bottom 40% of the league in Barrel%, xSLG, average exit velocity, and HardHit%. Schmidt also gives up significantly more power to left-handed hitters, and Alvarez is not the hitter to face when you struggle at giving up barrels.

Alvarez is not hitting right-handed pitching as hard as he typically does, but he has a favorable matchup in a lefty-friendly ballpark.

Eugenio Suarez (+520, FanDuel)

It is hard to believe that, at one time, Eugenio Suarez was one of the top power hitters in baseball. While he still has a lot of thump in his bat, his ISO is down to .160, which is his worst ISO since 2016, and his SLG is only .394.

However, Suarez still has a high barrel rate, as he ranks in the 87th percentile in Barrel% and the top 30% in HardHit%, xSLG, and xwOBA. He also has been swinging a hot bat since the All-Star break, slashing .264/.341/.472 with a 130 wRC+ and a .350 wOBA.

His ISO is also up to .208 in his last 19 games, and he has been crushing the ball, with a 17.2% Barrel% and four home runs. Prior to his rapid decline, which began in 2020, he smoked fastballs. From 2020-22, his HardHit% on fastballs significantly decreased, and while he still has not regained his prime years at the plate, his HardHit% on fastballs and sinkers are way up this season.

 Shohei Ohtani is on the mound for the Angels tonight, which sounds scary, but he has given up a lot of power this year. Ohtani’s HR/9 is up to 1.34, and his Barrel% is up 4% to 10.3%, which ranks in the 14th percentile.

Suarez does have a high strikeout rate, and Ohtani ranks in the 94th percentile in K%, but he also does not get guys to chase, and his fastball has not been as effective this year. 

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2380 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,380 if both players hit a home run tonight. 

Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses

Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from our favorite sports betting platforms.