MLB Home Run Props: Ramirez, Realmuto Headline Picks for Friday, Aug. 4

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Happy Friday, and welcome back to another great night of baseball. We have a full slate of action tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to place some MLB wagers, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Friday, Aug. 4. 

Thanks to Eugenio Suarez’s late-game home run, we cashed another winner last night. At +520 odds to hit a home run, we earned a nice chunk of change, and we look to keep the momentum rolling with two picks tonight. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.

More MLB betting: Friday’s MLB Strikeout Props |  NL Cy Young odds 2023 | AL Cy Young odds | 2023 World Series odds | MLB game betting lines | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games on which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Sat (9/23) @ 6:10pm ET BAL Orioles -1.5 +130 -135 o8.5 +102
CLE Guardians +1.5 -167 +108 u8.5 -130
Sun (9/24) @ 1:05pm ET NY Mets +1.5 -127 +152 o9 -115
PHI Phillies -1.5 +105 -179 u9 -105

MLB Home Run Picks (08/04/2023)

Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

Jose Ramirez (+420, FanDuel)

While things may look bleak for the Cleveland Guardians, Jose Ramirez has been smoking the ball lately and is quietly having another great season. That seems to be the theme with Ramirez. He is consistently one of the best players in baseball but does not get the recognition he deserves. 

The Guardians' Jose Ramirez makes our list for MLB home run props picks for Friday, Aug. 4, 2023.
Cleveland Guardians’ Jose Ramirez (AP Photo/Kevin M. Cox)

Ramirez’s ISO is down to .213, but his Barrel% and HardHit% are up this year. He also has increased his LD% by 4.5%, and Ramirez ranks in the top 20% of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, and xBA. 

He is not hitting home runs at the same rate, but he is starting to find more barrels. While Ramirez is batting only .239 over his last 12 games, his Barrel% is up to 10.2%, and he has four home runs with a .283 ISO. 

Although Ramirez has stated that he is more comfortable batting from the right side of the box, he has always mashed right-handed pitching and this year is no different. On the season, Ramirez has a .322/.404/.547 slash with a .951 OPS and a .225 ISO. Tonight, he gets a righty who has struggled at giving up hard contact in Mike Clevinger. 

Clevinger was known for striking guys out and avoiding barrels during his time with Cleveland. However, his career has taken a turn since he was traded away. Clevinger ranks in the league’s bottom half in Barrel%, xSLG, xwOBA, xBA, K%, BB%, and Whiff%. He also gives up more power to left-handed hitters, and with the way Ramirez is swinging the bat from that side of the plate, he should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight. 

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J.T. Realmuto (+450, FanDuel)

It appears that the decline of J.T. Realmuto is officially here. For the first time since 2015, he holds a sub-100 wRC+ and is only slashing .243/.308/.447 on the season. His HardHit% is also down 6%, and the Phillies catcher is making less contact on pitches in and out of the zone. 

However, he still hits the ball very hard, comparatively. On the season, Realmuto ranks in the 77th percentile in Barrel% and is in the league’s top half in xwOBA, HardHit%, and xSLG. He may be in a slump over the last 10 games, but he has a great matchup tonight against a guy in the Royals’ Jordan Lyles who gives up a ton of hard contact. 

Lyles ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in Barrel%, xwOBA, xSLG, and xBA. He also does not strike guys out very much, and his fastball has been crushed this season, a bad sign against Realmuto, who still has a high HardHit% against fastballs. 

Realmuto has been better against right-handed pitching this season, slashing .247/.313/.448 and nine home runs. If he does not get one off Lyles, Realmuto can feast off a Royals bullpen that ranks 26th in Barrel% (8.5%). It also helps that the wind is blowing out hard toward left center, where Realmuto likes to hit it out. 

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2760 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,760 if both Ramirez and Realmuto go deep tonight. 

Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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