Welcome back to another great week of baseball. We have a fantastic 12-game slate full of exciting matchups tonight, and bettors can take advantage of the action with a few MLB wagers, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Monday, Aug. 7.
The summer months have not treated our home run picks kindly this season. However, we were still able to find a few winners last week, and we are back again today with two great home run predictions for tonight’s slate.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Monday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/07/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Bryan De La Cruz (+420, FanDuel)
We have a battle of the De La Cruz (no relation) in Cincinnati, and we will take a chance on Bryan De La Cruz to hit a home run tonight. He is not hitting the ball as hard as last year, but he has set a career-high in home runs (15) and has been crushing the ball since the All-Star break.
In his last 20 games, Cruz is only slashing .213/.247/.463 with a .297 wOBA. But, he also has increased his ISO to .250, and he has a 12.7% Barrel% and a 47.6% HardHit%. On the season, De La Cruz ranks in the 70th percentile in HardHit% and in the top 50% of the league in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and xwOBA.
His numbers are down across the board, especially his barrel rate, down to 8.1% from 11.9% last season. However, De La Cruz has a great matchup against a starting pitcher in Brandon Williamson, who is prone to getting knocked around. In his first Major League season, Williamson has pitched 68.2 IP with a 4.85 ERA. His problem is that he gives up a ton of power, and his xERA and xFIP point toward some significant regression.
Williamson has also given up a ton of hard contact to right-handed hitters, as he has allowed 12 home runs and a .507 SLG in just 54.1 IP. While De La Cruz hits right-handed pitching a bit better, it is only by a slight margin, and he has a 40.5% HardHit% against lefties. It also helps that the wind will blow out hard toward left field, where De La Cruz hits most of his home runs.
Nick Castellanos (+390, FanDuel)
After a down year in 2022, Nick Castellanos has swung the bat much better this season but is still in a noticeable decline from what he once was. Entering tonight, Castellanos is slashing .274/.315/.455 with a .771 OPS and a 105 wRC+.
He also has increased his Barrel% by 4% up to 10.2%, and while his xBA and xSLG point towards some mild regression, he also has improved his HardHit% by 7%. Overall, he ranks in the 66th percentile in both HardHit% and Barrel%, and he has crushed the ball at home this season, with a .249 ISO and a .554 SLG.
While the overall outlook on the rest of his career is bleak, especially since he is making less contact both in and out of the zone, there is still a lot of thump in Castellanos’ bat. He also has been struggling over his last 20 games, batting well below the Mendoza line. Still, he has a favorable matchup tonight against a home run pitcher in Trevor Williams and a terrible Nationals’ bullpen.
On the season, Williams’ HR/9 sits at 1.82, and he ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, Barrel%, K%, and Whiff%. In Williams’ last five starts, he has given up five home runs in just 24.2 IP, and while he has significantly cut down on his barrel rate in that time, he still has a 43% HardHit% as well.
Castellanos does hit left-handed pitching better, but only slightly, and if he does not get one off Williams, he has one of the worst bullpens in baseball to help him out. Washington’s bullpen ranks last in HR/9, HardHit%, and they have an 8.5% Barrel rate, tied for 29th in the league.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2448 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,448 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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