Another terrific day of baseball is upon us, with a full 15-game slate starting this afternoon. With so many games to pick from, bettors have plenty of chances to find an MLB wager, including any-time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, Aug. 9.
Our picks did not produce a winner last night, but keep your eye on Matt Olson and Francisco Lindor tonight. While they are not our official home run picks tonight, it seems that every time we pick someone to hit one out and they don’t, they end up getting one the next day. However, we have two other home run predictions tonight that have some great value.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/09/2023)
Shohei Ohtani (+350, FanDuel)
I may be going out on a limb here, but Shohei Ohtani is an outstanding baseball player. While he is on the mound tonight, that has not stopped his bat this season. He has six home runs in games that he has pitched this season, and two more in the second game of a doubleheader against the Tigers after he pitched a complete game shutout in Game 1.
He also has been crushing the ball since the All-Star break, slashing .329/.491/.695 with a 205 wRC+ and eight home runs in 24 games. Ohtani’s Barrel% is also an unthinkable 26% in that same period. While the Giants are sending out a rookie in Ryan Walker to get the start, who has done an excellent job avoiding barrels in his young career, he has not faced a guy like Ohtani, who is hitting everything hard right now.
On the season, Ohtani ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, xwOBA, and Barrel%. He also is in the top 3% of the league in xSLG, HardHit%, and xBA. It also helps that Ohtani is astronomically better against right-handed pitching, as he has 31 home runs, a .386 ISO, and a slash of .328/.425/.714 with an OPS of 1.139 in 109 games against righties.
While he is facing a right-hander that does not give up a lot of hard contact, Ohtani is swinging a scorching-hot bat, and he has crushed baseballs at home this season.
Yordan Alvarez (+300, FanDuel)
Although he has not played very much this season, Yordan Alvarez has still been one of the best power bats in baseball, and he has been on fire recently. While Alvarez has only played 11 games since the All-Star break, he is slashing .350/.435/.700 with a .350 ISO and a 21.9% Barrel% in those games. He also has four home runs in that period and has reduced his strikeout rate by almost 4%.
In just 68 games played, Alvarez has 21 home runs, and while his Barrel% and HardHit% are slightly down from last season, he still ranks in the 99th percentile in Barrel% and the top 10% of the league in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xSLG, HardHit%, and xBA.
His strikeout and swinging strike rates are up, but that type of regression is expected when you are playing most of the season hurt. Even then, Alvarez is still one of the best power hitters in baseball. While Camden Yards is not a great home-run ballpark, the wind is blowing out tonight, and Baltimore will have Jack Flaherty on the mound, who dominated in his first Orioles’ start but has struggled against lefties this year.
In 59 IP against left-handed hitters, Flaherty has given up seven home runs and a wOBA of .381. Even though he ranks in the 76th percentile in Barrel%, Flaherty has allowed a 36.6% line-drive rate on balls in play, which is dangerous against a pure-power hitter such as Alvarez.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1700 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,700 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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