Welcome back to another wonderful day of baseball. There are only eight games on the schedule today, but plenty of bets are still available to the public, including any-time home run bets. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, Aug. 10.
This is not the most fabulous slate of games, as four of the eight games will start this afternoon. However, there are a few good matchups this evening with valuable home run props. Our home run predictions have gone a little cold this week after finishing July hot, but we are back today with one of the game’s best power hitters and a young slugger who is starting to come into his own.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Thursday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/09/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Kyle Schwarber (+300, FanDuel)
For the third-consecutive season, Kyle Schwarber has hit 30 home runs. While he is not hitting the ball as well as in previous seasons, he still is a net-positive offensive player, with a 104 wRC+ and his hard-hit numbers still rank amongst the best in the league.
On the season, Schwarber ranks in the 91st percentile in Barrel% and the top 30% of the league in xwOBA, HardHit%, xSLG, average exit velocity, and BB%. His strikeout rate also remains high, but he does not chase pitches and his BB% currently sits at a career-best of 16.3%, which ranks in the 98th percentile.
Schwarbers’s Barrel% is down 6% and his HardHit% is down to 46.5%, which is an alarming amount of regression. But still, he has been crushing the ball this season. Going forward, Schwarber may be at the end of his days as one of the game’s best power-hitters, but he still is producing in 2023 and has been much better at the plate offensively since the All-Star break.
In 25 games played, Schwarber is still batting below the Mendoza line, but he also has a .366 wOBA, eight home runs, and a 123 wRC+. His Barrel% is slightly down, but his ISO is up to .292, and he is striking out less while raising his BB% to a tremendous 21.4%.
He has a lefty on the mound tonight, which is concerning, but luckily, it is one of the worst left-handed starters in Patrick Corbin. Since signing an extension after being a massive part of the Nationals’ World Series run, he has not had an ERA under 4.66, and his barrel rate has exploded since then. Corbin is also giving up almost 15% more contact, and his swinging strike rate is down nearly 6% from 2019.
When you have difficulty getting outs, allowing hard contact, and avoiding barrels, chances are you will not get good results. To be fair, he has been slightly better this season, but with an xERA of 6.34, he is due for some regression.
If Schwarber does not hit one out against Corbin, he has a Nationals bullpen that gives up a ton of power.
Bobby Witt Jr. (+420, FanDuel)
After a slow year and a half-start to his career, Bobby Witt Jr. is really starting to find his groove. Not only has he blossomed into a great defensive player, but his bat is starting to get more lethal, especially with how much power he has.
He ranks in the 76th percentile in Barrel% and the top 11% of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, max exit velocity, and xSLG. It also helps that he does not strike out often and ranks in the top half of the league in Whiff%. His chase rate is high but not too concerning for a power-hitting shortstop in his second big-league season.
Witt started the season slowly, but since June, he has really been hitting the ball well. In 58 games played, Witt has a slash of .309/.355/.517 with 10 home runs and a .370 wOBA. Although his Barrel% is slightly down since June, he still has a high HardHit%.
Tonight, Witt will go up against James Paxton, who is having a good season and is due for some mild positive regression. However, Paxton gives up a lot of hard contact but is surprisingly very efficient against right-handed hitting. Luckily, Witt has crushed left-handed pitching this season and he has been on fire in August, slashing .344/.432/.594 with a 1.026 OPS and a .250 ISO.
He has had a hit in every game this series, and with the wind blowing out over the green monster, Witt should be in an excellent spot to hit a home run tonight.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2020 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,020 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from our favorite sports betting platforms.
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