MLB Home Run Props: HR Picks for Joc Pederson, Carlos Santana Tonight, Aug. 11

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Happy Friday, and welcome back to another terrific night of baseball. We have a full 15-game slate, giving bettors plenty of chances to place an MLB wager, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run props for Friday, Aug. 11. 

Our home run props did not produce a winner last night, but we have two very valuable home run predictions for this slate. Tonight, our home run picks feature two players we have not used this season but are in good spots to hit one out. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top US sports betting apps to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

Game Time Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Tue (4/16) @ 6:40pm ET SF Giants +2.5 +305 +2100 u9.5 -385
MIA Marlins -2.5 -455 -5000 o9.5 +270
Tue (4/16) @ 7:40pm ET SD Padres -3.5 -357 -2500 u10.5 -154
MIL Brewers +3.5 +255 +1100 o10.5 +118

MLB Home Run Picks (08/11/2023)

Although he is experiencing a down year, Joc Pederson still hits the ball very hard and is in an excellent spot to cash a home run prop ticket tonight.
Although he is experiencing a down year, Joc Pederson still hits the ball very hard and is in an excellent spot to cash a home run prop ticket. (AP Photo/John Hefti)

Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

Joc Pederson (+460, FanDuel)

Although he is experiencing a down year, Joc Pederson still hits the ball very hard and is in an excellent spot to cash a home run prop ticket tonight. His Barrel% rate is down 2%, but he still ranks in the 88th percentile in Barrel%.

Pederson also ranks in the top 20% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, and BB%. He also has cut down on his strikeout rate, and Pederson ranks in the top half of the league in chase rate and Whiff%.

Part of the reason for his decline this season is he has not been very lucky, as his BABIP is down to .260, but he also is making 6% less contact on pitches in the zone. Typically, this would be concerning, but he is still finding barrels, and although he has struggled this month, he has a good matchup tonight.

Tonight, he will go up against Jon Gray, who does not give up many barrels or hard hits but gives up significantly more power to left-handed hitters. Over his last five starts, he has only given up two home runs, but his HardHit% has increased, and Gray’s xERA, xFIP, and xSLG all point toward some regression.

This recent stretch of play has been concerning for Pederson, but he likes hitting at home, is still crushing the ball, and is facing a pitcher due for some regression. It also does not help that Gray’s fastball has lost some effectiveness this year, and Pederson has always been a great fastball-hitter.

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Carlos Santana (+430, FanDuel)

Believe it or not, Carlos Santana is still putting up terrific ABs and could be a significant addition to this Brewers lineup. He is obviously at the end of his rope regarding his ‘playable’ years, as he is slashing .163/.200/.302 since being traded.

However, he has actually hit the ball well against right-handed pitching this season, with a slash of .224/.299/.410 with a .710 OPS. Those are right around league average, and although his Barrel% and hardHit% are also down, his LD% rate is up, he is making more contact on pitches in the zone, and as always, he has some of the best plate discipline in baseball.

Santana not hitting the ball as hard as even just last year is concerning, but he has a favorable matchup tonight against Michael Kopech. On the season, Kopech’s HR/9 has ballooned up to 2.01, and he is due for some significant regression, with his xERA sitting an entire run higher than his actual 4.43 ERA.

Even more concerning for Kopech is that his Barrel% has jumped 6% to 14%, and he gives up a ton of power to left-handed hitters. Kopech’s high walk rate may be concerning with how Santana treats every AB, but he is giving up a ludicrous amount of power, and the bullpen has not been much better.

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2686 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,868 if both home run props cash tonight. 

Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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