Welcome back to another terrific week of baseball. There are only nine games on the schedule tonight, but there are some great matchups, and bettors can take advantage of the action and place some MLB wagers. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Monday, Aug. 14.
After going ice cold in July, our home run picks have produced a few winners over the last few weeks. We are still not as hot as we were at the start of the season, but our home run props for tonight feature two great value picks, which can return a nice profit if they can hit a home run.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Monday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from FanDuel for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top online baseball betting sites to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/14/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Corey Seager (+420, FanDuel)
After a shockingly bad first season with the Rangers, Corey Seager has returned to his prime form. He has the highest offensive fWAR on the highest-scoring team in baseball and a 186 wRC+.
Seager has only played 75 games this season, but he is slashing .348/.407/.649 with a .440 xwOBA and a 1.056 OPS. He is putting up his best overall season at the plate and has been hitting the ball harder than ever. He enters tonight with career highs in ISO (.301), Barrel% (18.5%), and HardHit%, and since the all-star break, those numbers have increased significantly.
Over his last 16 games, Seager is slashing .328/.386/.781 with eight home runs and a .453 ISO. His Barrel% is slightly down during this run, but it still sits at 15.3%, which would rank 10th among qualified hitters this season. It also helps that his xSLG and xwOBA point toward a slight uptick in production, and he has been making more contact on pitches in the zone this season.
Although he is slightly worse against left-handed pitching and has a southpaw on the mound in Patrick Sandoval tonight, Seager is having a career year against lefties. In 105 ABs against left-handed pitching, Seager slashes .343/.375/.600 with a .975 OPS and a .257 ISO.
Sandoval does not give up much hard contact, but his xERA and xFIP point towards some significant regression. In his last five starts, Sandoval has a 1.86 ERA, and although his HR/9 is slightly up, his Barrel% is down to 5.5%. He has been sharp, but Sandoval is going up against the best offense in baseball, which is the perfect recipe to kickstart his looming regression.
With how well Seager has been swinging the bat recently and with a solid +420 price at FanDuel, taking Seager’s odds to hit a home run is a good play tonight.
Anthony Volpe (+870, FanDuel)
We will take some value with our second home run prop of the night. Coming into the season, Anthony Volpe was projected to be a big piece for a Yankees team looking to return to the ALCS. However, things have not gone exactly to plan for Volpe, as he has struggled for most of the season.
He enters tonight with a .211/.291/.383 slash with a .295 wOBA and only 87 wRC+. Luckily, he has showcased his incredible power profile, as he has 16 home runs and ranks in the top half of the league in HardHit% and Barrel%. Volpe is only 22 years old and can hit the ball hard, which is a good sign. The Yankees are such a mess that allowing Volpe to get reps at the big league level — even if they have not always looked great — has benefited his development.
After a brutal start to the season, Volpe has started to even out as the season has progressed. Since June, Volpe has been slashing .229/.311/.410, which is not overly great, but his 100 wRC+ and 7.3% Barrel% are very promising.
The Yankees suffered a horrible loss on Sunday, and things do not get much easier with a road series against Atlanta. However, New York is still scoring runs, and Volpe has been swinging a much better bat lately, increasing his Barrel% to 8.3% since the All-Star break.
The Braves will send out Max Fried, which is a tough matchup as he does not give up much power. But Volpe has crushed left-handed pitching, and with how well he has improved as the season has progressed, Volpe is well worth a shot here, especially at +870.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +4944 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $4,944 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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