Welcome back to another great night of baseball. We have a full slate of action tonight, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to wager on MLB, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our favorite MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday, Aug. 15.
Our picks did not produce a winner last night, but tonight’s MLB home run picks feature two great power hitters with favorable pitching matchups and even more favorable weather conditions.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday night.
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Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top online baseball betting sites to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/15/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Rafael Devers (+280, FanDuel)
Although his numbers are slightly down, Rafael Devers is having another great season at the plate. He is slashing only .265/.335/.512 with a .357 wOBA, but his BABIP is way down, showing he is dealing with some bad luck, and his xwOBA sits at .377, which means we should expect some positive regression.
Devers has also been crushing the ball this season, as he has 26 home runs, a .246 ISO, and a Barrel% of 12.9%. While he is not barreling up the baseball as he did from 2019-21, Devers still ranks in the 81st percentile in Barrel%. He also ranks in the top 10% of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, HardHit%, and average exit velocity.
The Red Sox third baseman’s strikeout rate is up slightly, but his Z-contact% is over 80% for the first time since 2019, and he has been taking 2% fewer swings on pitches out of the zone. It also helps that Devers has been red-hot coming out of the All-Star break. Over his last 24 games, Devers is slashing .310/.375/.586 with a .276 ISO and six home runs. Despite his Barrel% slipping down to 11.5% during this period, he has a favorable matchup tonight.
Not only is the wind blowing out hard at Nationals Park tonight, but Washington sends out Josiah Gray to get the start tonight. While Gray is putting up the best season of his career, his xERA sits an entire run higher than his 3.69 ERA, and his xFIP points toward even more regression.
Gray has cut down on the hard contact he gives up, but he still ranks in the bottom half of the league in Barrel%, xSLG, and xwOBA. Over his last five starts, he has done a better job at keeping the ball in the park, but his ERA is up to 4.78, and his walk rate sits at 4.10 BB/9.
Even if Devers does not get one off Gray, he gets a Nationals bullpen toward the bottom of the league in Barrel% and home run allowed.
Matt McLain (+420, FanDuel)
Like the Red Sox vs. Nationals game, the wind will significantly influence this Indians vs. Reds matchup. According to BallParkPal.com, tonight’s game has a +41% boost on home runs, and with the wind blowing out hard toward left field, a quality right-handed bat like Matt McLain is in an excellent spot to hit one out.
McLain has been one of the best rookies in baseball, and although he likely will not catch Corbin Carroll in NL Rookie of the Year odds, he has been one of a few great rookies on this Cincinnati team. In 77 games, McLain slashes .297/.361/.505 with a .372 wOBA. While his xwOBA, xSLG, and xBA all point toward some regression, he still has been crushing the ball, especially against left-handed pitching.
In 78 ABs against southpaws, McLain is slashing .333/.381/.628 with a 1.009 OPS and a .295 ISO. While Logan Allen will be a tough lefty matchup, Allen does give up a lot of barrels, and over his last five starts, his HR/9 has increased to 1.55, and he has a 9.9% Barrel%.
Allen also gives up a lot of hard contact against right-handed hitting, and he has a 44.9% pull rate, and McLain is a pull-hitter. Although McLain has struggled this month, as his Barrel% is down to 3.2% and he has only one home run in 48 PAs, this is the perfect matchup to break out of his funk and hit one out.
If he does not get one of Allen, Cleveland’s bullpen has been wildly inconsistent, and it ranks 25th in Barrel%.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1876 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,876 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses
Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from the top US sports betting apps at Gaming Today.
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