Welcome back to another terrific slate of baseball. We have games running all day today, starting this afternoon. This gives bettors plenty of chances to place an MLB wager, including any-time home run bets. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday, Aug. 16.
Two of the game’s best power hitters with excellent matchups headline our home run props tonight. Our home run picks did not produce a winner last night, but we have been able to cash a few winners over the previous few weeks and have two very valuable home run picks for tonight’s action.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top online baseball betting sites to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/16/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Adolis Garcia (+340, FanDuel)
A big part of the Texas Rangers’ success this season has come from the bat of Adolis Garcia. He had a pretty solid season last year, and it looked like he could be a nice power bat in this lineup for the next few seasons. However, in 2023, Garcia has blossomed into one of the best offensive players in baseball.
Entering tonight, Garcia has a .258/.340/.516 slash with a .377 xwOBA and a 133 wRC+. Garcia also has 30 home runs, one shy of his career high, and his ISO (.258), Barrel% (16.1%), and HardHit% (49.2%) are all the highest they have ever been in his career.
Although he has reduced his strikeout rate, he still ranks in the 26th percentile in K% and 23rd in Whiff%. Luckily, he also walks a lot, and his xSLG, xBA, and xwOBA all point toward some positive regression. He also has been swinging a very hot bat coming out of the All-Star break, with seven home runs, a .380 wOBA, and while his Barrel% is slightly down since the break, it still would rank in the top 20 this season.
Not only does Garcia have the advantage of playing at home, where he has mashed the ball, but he gets a struggling lefty who gives up a lot of hard contact in Reid Detmers. Detmers has not been all that great on the season, but his last five starts have been even worse. In only 22.0 IP, Detmers has allowed six home runs, has a 9.00 ERA, and is giving up a ton of hard contact and having trouble avoiding barrels.
Detmers actually ranks in the 67th percentile in Barrel% this season, but he has been getting shelled recently. It also does not help that he is playing in a home run-hitters park, and Garcia has mashed left-handed pitching this season.
Bryce Harper (+450, FanDuel)
It has been an odd season for Bryce Harper, but it should not be held against him. He missed practically the entire first half of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and while his production at the plate has taken a noticeable step back, he still has a lot of power in his bat.
Through 86 games this season, Harper only has seven home runs, and his ISO is down to .134, which is by far the worst of his career. However, his Barrel% is up to 13.2%, and he has been crushing the ball this month. Through 13 games in August, Harper has a .245 ISO, .346 wOBA, 58.1% HardHit%, and his Barrel% sits at an incredible 25.8%.
Harper still only has two home runs in this span, and his strikeout rate is way up. But it is clear that he is starting to hit the ball like he usually does, and while Kevin Gausman is a tough matchup, Harper should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
Although Gausman’s high K/9, Whiff%, and chase rate are concerning, he also ranks in the 14th percentile in Barrel%, and the bottom half of the league in HardHit%, average exit velocity, and xSLG. Gausman has also given up a ton of hard contact over his last five starts, with a 13.2% Barrel% and a 1.53 HR/9.
He also gives up slightly more power to left-handed hitters, and Harper has always mashed right-handed pitching. With FanDuel offering a solid +450 price, betting on Harper’s odds of hitting a home run is well worth a play tonight.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2320 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,320 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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