Welcome back to another wonderful day of baseball. We have a short slate of games tonight, but bettors still have plenty of chances to place an MLB wager, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Thursday, Aug. 17.
Tonight’s action: MLB HR props picks for Friday, Aug. 18, 2023
Our home run props cashed a winner last night, thanks to Bryce Harper’s two-home run performance. There may be only six games on the schedule tonight, but there are two nationally televised matchups, and we have a home run pick for both games.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Thursday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top online baseball betting sites to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/17/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Riley Greene (+450, FanDuel)
The Detroit Tigers are actually playing some decent baseball right now, and the progression from their young stars has played a significant role. They are still not that great of a team, but with the emergence of guys like Riley Greene, Tigers’ fans have to feel much better about the future.
The 22-year-old is slashing .309/.368/.491 with a .370 wOBA, and a 139 wRC+. He still strikes out at a very high rate, but he has mashed the ball this season. Greene ranks in the 79th percentile in Barrel% and is in the top 10% of the league in HardHit%, xSLG, xBA, and xwOBA.
Although he only has 11 home runs and a .182 ISO when he gets ahold of one, they go a long way, especially with how well he is swinging the bat lately. In August, Greene has three home runs, a .296 ISO, and his Barrel% is up to an incredible 21.4%. Again, the high strikeout and low walk numbers are concerning, but he has made tremendous strides as a player this season.
He also has a great matchup against a struggling Cleveland pitching staff. Tonight, the Guardians will start Xzavion Curry, who has been really solid in his transition to an ‘opener’ role, but he is due for some major regression, and that process may have already started.
Over his last five appearances, Curry has a 5.17 ERA, xFIP of 6.12, and his HR/9 has ballooned to 1.72. Curry also has trouble avoiding barrels, and his HardHit% of 49.1% is very concerning. While he is very good against left-handed pitching, Greene smokes righties, and with the way these two are trending, we will back Greene to hit a home run tonight. Even if he does not get one off Curry, the Guardians’ bullpen has given up a ton of hard contact this season.
Pete Alonso (+340, FanDuel)
It has been shocking to watch how much the Mets have regressed as a team in 2023. Luckily, they still have enjoyed Pete Alonso hitting the crap out of the ball. While he is having one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, Alonso still has 36 home runs. He is projected for some positive regression and is currently sitting on a career-high 14.9% Barrel%.
His .300 ISO is also the highest since his rookie season, and while his HardHit% is down, he still ranks in the top half of the league in that category. His biggest problem is that he is not hitting breaking stuff as hard this season. In 2022, Alonso had over 45% HardHit% on curveballs and changeups. This season, his hard-hit rate is down to 21.7% on changeups and 40% on curves.
Luckily, he has an extremely favorable matchup tonight as the Cardinals continue throwing Adam Wainwright out on the mound in the saddest attempt at achieving a milestone in baseball history. In what is likely his last season, Wainwright is just two wins away from 200-career wins. The problem is he has not won a start since June 17 and has been shelled since then.
The Cardinals being out of playoff contention does help. However, since his last win, he has made seven starts, has a 14.87 ERA, has allowed 38 earned runs, a 3.13 HR/9, and his walk and strikeout rates are practically identical. To make matters worse, he has allowed 15 runs in his last two starts while only retiring 12 batters.
The 2023 Mets are also cursed, so we may have a classic battle between the ‘very movable object’ vs. the ‘easily stoppable force.’ But Alonso has still been crushing the ball, and Wainwright has thrown a lot of fastballs this season, which Alonso still has been hitting hard.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2320 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,320 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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