Happy Friday, and welcome back to another terrific night of baseball. We have a 16-game slate tonight, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to place an MLB wager, including an any time home run bet. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Friday, Aug. 18.
Our home run picks cashed a ticket for the second-straight night thanks to Pete Alonso’s monster shot off Adam Wainwright. Today, our home run predictions feature the two players we have used the most during our daily home run props series.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top online baseball betting sites to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/18/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Shohei Ohtani (+220, FanDuel)
There is nothing more to say about Shohei Ohtani at this point. He is, by far, the best player in baseball and is already pretty unanimously considered the best baseball player of all time. He enters tonight’s game with a .306/.407/.664 slash with a .437 wOBA and 183 wRC+.
He is also putting up some of the best power numbers of his career. While his Barrel% is down 3% from his 2021 MVP season, he currently sits on a career-best 54.3% HardHit% and .358 ISO. Despite the slight dip in barrels, he still ranks in the 99th percentile in Barrel%.
Ohtani is striking out more than usual this month, but he still has a .396 wOBA, 154 wRC+, and his Barrel% is up to 24.2%. He had a home run in his last game but is not hitting them out as often, and his lead in the league home run race has diminished. However, he has a favorable matchup against a struggling Tampa Bay team.
The Rays will start with an ‘opener’ tonight as Erasmo Ramirez will be making his second start of the season. His first start only went three innings, and while he did reasonably well, it came against a bad Tigers lineup. While Tampa Bay’s bullpen is solid, they have been wildly inconsistent, and it is becoming painfully clear that the Rays’ injuries to their rotation are starting to wear on the bullpen.
There is not a genuine ‘go-to’ guy in this bullpen, and while they have done a nice job avoiding barrels throughout the season, they and the entire team have regressed by a significant amount in the last two months.
With how well Ohtani is swinging the bat, he should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
Matt Olson (+285, FanDuel)
Yes, we are betting on Matt Olson to go deep again.
He has officially taken the league lead in home runs from Ohtani and is swinging an outrageously-hot bat right now. In August, Olson has a wOBA of .504, a .411 ISO, and seven home runs in just 16 games.
While his Barrel% is down this month, it still sits at 17%, and he is striking out significantly less while increasing his BB% to 23%. Obviously, walks are not what we are looking for in this matchup. Luckily, he has a matchup against a mediocre righty in Alex Cobb, who has not been that great since the All-Star break and is due for even more regression.
In his six starts since the break, Cobb has a 5.63 ERA, has allowed eight home runs, and is giving up a lot of hard contact. He also has given up a ton of hard hits to left-handed hitters, and Olson is dominating righties this season, with a slash of .278/.405/.632 with a 1.036 OPS and a .354 ISO.
Cobb’s best pitch is his splitter, which has been as effective as ever this season. The problem is that his HardHit% on that pitch is up 11% this season. His sinker has also regressed, and Olson has an incredible 60% HardHit% on that pitch.
Olson has also crushed the ball at Truist Park this season, and the Giants’ bullpen has had trouble keeping the ball in the park. With the wind blowing out toward right-center, Olson is in a great spot to increase his league lead in home runs.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1132 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,132 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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