Welcome back to another great week of baseball. We have a nice 10-game slate tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to place some MLB wagers, including anytime home run bets. Here, we break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Monday, Aug. 21.
Our home run picks were hot last week, cashing three-straight winners, and we are back tonight with two very valuable home run props to start the week.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Monday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top online baseball betting sites to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/21/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Austin Riley (+350, FanDuel)
Despite a slight dip in production, Austin Riley continues to be one of the best young hitters in the game. He enters tonight with an xwOBA of .359, 123 wRC+, and a 3.8 fWAR. His OBP and SLG are slightly down, but he is still producing at the plate and has hit the ball very hard this season.
Riley ranks in the 82nd percentile in Barrel% and 89th percentile in HardHit%. He also ranks in the top 20% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and average exit velocity. It also helps that Riley has cut down on his strikeout rate, and his swinging strike rate is down 2% this season.
Since the All-Star break, Riley has been on a tear. In 34 games, he has a .312/.366/.667 slash with a .425 wOBA and a 166 wRC+. Riley has also been hitting the ball well in that period, with a .355 ISO, 18.8% Barrel%, and a 53.5% HardHit%.
Riley has a favorable matchup tonight against David Peterson and the Mets. Not only does the Mets bullpen give up a ton of home runs and barrels, but Peterson is having one of the worst seasons of his career. He enters tonight with a 5.45 ERA, and his HR/9 is up to 1.36. Peterson ranks in the top half of the league in Barrel%, but he is also in the bottom 30% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xBA, and xwOBA.
Although Riley is actually slightly better against righties, he still has seven home runs and a .267 ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
Alex Bregman (+520, FanDuel)
It is safe to say that Alex Bregman‘s MVP-caliber seasons at the plate are past him. However, he is still a solid player, with a slash of .252/.350/.428 with a 118 wRC+. While he was never a consistently-great home run hitter, he has lost much of his power, as his ISO is down to .176, and his HardHit% only sits at 36.8%.
Luckily, he has been on fire since the All-Star break. Over his last 34 games, Bregman is slashing .282/.382/.534 with a .392 wOBA and a 154 wRC+. While his Barrel% and HardHit% are still not where they used to be during this stretch, he has eight home runs and a .252 ISO.
His regression against left-handed pitching has been alarming, but he has a matchup against a very inconsistent Red Sox bullpen and a lefty in James Paxton, who gives up a lot of power. Paxton ranks in the 37th percentile in Barrel% and the bottom half of the league in HardHit% and average exit velocity.
Despite holding right-handed hitters to just a .217 BA this season, Paxton still has allowed 12 home runs to righties, and Bregman has always hit the ball better in Houston. He may not be the hitter he once was, but Bregman is swinging a hot bat right now, and you can get a solid +520 price at FanDuel for him to go deep tonight.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2690 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,690 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses
Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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