Welcome back to another great day of baseball. We have a loaded 15-game schedule tonight, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to place an MLB wager, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday, Aug. 22.
Our home run picks did not produce a winner last night, but we have been hot recently. If you have been following our picks since last week, you would be up 5.1 units. Tonight, we have two more home run predictions from some young power hitters with great value.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top online baseball betting sites to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/22/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
Nolan Jones (+480, FanDuel)
Few baseball players possess the raw power at a young age as Nolan Jones does. He showcased that power at the very beginning of his career when he registered a 16.7% Barrel% and a HardHit% of 62.5% through his first two weeks’ worth of games last season.
Since coming to the Rockies, he has had more of a consistent role and has played well in it. Entering tonight, Jones is slashing .279/.362/.498 with a .859 OPS and a 117 wRC+. While he is due for some slight regression at the plate, Jones also has a 14.6% Barrel%, and the ball comes off his bat faster than most. While the large strikeout numbers are alarming, he has been a much better player since the All-Star break.
Jones has elevated his walk rate to 10.7%, and he is driving the ball out of the park more, with seven home runs and a .250 ISO over his last 31 games. He also has increased his Barrel% to 19.1% and is slashing .269/.344/.519 with a 116 wRC+ since the break.
Playing in Colorado should be a massive advantage for Jones, but he has actually been slightly better on the road this season. In 35 road games, Jones has six home runs, an SLG of .500, and a .230 ISO. His strikeout rate is much higher away from Colorado, but that does not change the fact that he has hit the ball very hard away from home.
Tonight, Jones has a tough matchup in Tampa Bay, but he is going up against a guy in Zack Littell who gives up a lot of power and is due for some regression. It also helps that the Rays bullpen, while solid, has been wildly inconsistent in the second half of the season.
Although Tropicana Field is not a great home run ballpark, Jones has been swinging a hot bat and will be going up against a declining and overworked Tampa Bay pitching staff.
Matt Wallner (+470, FanDuel)
The Twins may have found a really nice power bat in Matt Wallner. He made his debut last year and was fine in 18 games. Wallner has become a more significant part of the team this season, especially down the stretch.
In 41 games this year, Walner slashes .237/.341/.518 with an xwOBA of .389 and a 138 wRC+. More importantly, he is crushing the ball, as he has nine home runs with a .281 ISO and an incredible 16.4% Barrel%. Like many young power-bats, he struggles with high strikeout rates, and that number has only risen since he took a bigger role with the team in July.
However, he also has increased his ISO to .295 and has eight of his nine home runs in just 30 games. Luckily, he has an easier matchup tonight against Wade Miley and the Brewers. While Milwaukee’s bullpen is solid, Miley does not strike guys out at a high rate, is giving up more power and barrels this season, and is due for some major regression.
Wallner has also crushed right-handed pitching, as he slashes .264/.385/.571 with a .957 OPS and a .308 ISO. While he has not been all that great on the road, Milwaukee has one of the best home run parks for left-handed hitters. At a +470 price, Wallner is well worth a play tonight.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +3206 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $3,206 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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