Welcome back to another great day of baseball. We have a full 15-game slate of action tonight, which gives bettors plenty of opportunities to place an MLB wager, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday, Aug. 23.
Our picks did not have a winner last night, but we still have been hot, as we are up 3.1 units over the last week. Tonight, we have two excellent home run picks with some solid value.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top online baseball betting sites to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/22/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
James Outman (+470, FanDuel)
The Dodgers just continue to churn out young talent, and James Outman is one of those guys. He enters tonight with a .250/.353/.429 slash with a 116 wRC+. While he does strike out a lot, he also ranks in the 85th percentile in BB% and the 71st percentile in chase rate.
He is due for some regression, but Outman has a lot of power in his bat, ranking in the 70th percentile in Barrel%. Since the All-Star break, his batting numbers have only gotten better. Over his last 33 games, Outman has a .289/.439/.454 slash with a .397 wOBA and a 153 wRC+.
Outman has only four home runs and a .165 ISO since the All-Star break, but he has been finding more barrels and has significantly reduced his strikeout rate. He has a right-handed matchup with Xzavion Curry and a righty-dominant Cleveland bullpen, which helps with Outman’s odds of hitting a home run.
He has hit the ball much harder against right-handed pitching, and Curry, while solid in his starting role, is due for some significant regression. Curry does not give up a ton of hard contact, but he also does not strike guys out, and his Barrel% is up to 8.5% this season.
Cleveland’s bullpen has been shaky for a while now, as they rank 25th in Barrel% and 27th in exit velocity. The wind will also blow hard toward that short right-field wall in Cleveland. While there are a few Dodgers to consider for MLB home run props tonight, we will take a shot with Outman.
Yordan Alvarez (+390, FanDuel)
Yordan Alvarez has been slumping this month. In 18 games, Alvarez is slashing .250/.342/.397 with only two home runs and a wRC+ of 103. It is also alarming that his Barrel% is down to 9.1%, and while his strikeout rate is down, he is just not hitting the ball as he usually does.
He went 3-10 with four RBI over his last two games, but he did register a barrel in either game. Luckily, Alvarez is still one of the best hitters in the league and is due for some positive regression. He ranks in the 99th percentile in xwOBA and xSLG. Alvarez is also ranked in the top 10% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xBA, Barrel%, and BB%.
Even though he is in s a bit of a slump this month, Alvarez has a good matchup tonight. He is one of the best left-on-left hitters in baseball, and he will face a struggling lefty in Chris Sale tonight. Sale is actually due for some positive regression, but he is giving up a lot of hard contact and barrels, and he has struggled against lefties this season.
This home run pick is mostly about Alavrez’s looming positive regression. Although he has been a much better hitter on the road, Alvarez has traditionally hit the ball well in Houston, and he should be in a good spot to hit a home run tonight.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2693 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,693 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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