MLB Home Run Props: Two Best HR Picks for Friday, Aug. 25

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Happy Friday, and welcome back to another great night of baseball. We have a full 15-game slate tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to place an MLB wager, including any time home run bets. Here, we list our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Friday, Aug. 25.

Our picks have gone cold this week, but we are not too far removed from four straight days of cashed home run prop tickets. The only thing we can do now is trust the data and keep going with our daily home run picks series.

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.

More: Friday’s MLB strikeout propsWorld Series odds | MLB game betting lines | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, check out the top online baseball betting sites to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers.

MLB Home Run Picks (08/25/2023)

Although Bryson Stott is not a 'power-hitter,' he has been swinging a really hot bat this month.
Although Bryson Stott is not a ‘power-hitter,’ he has been swinging a really hot bat this month. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.

Bryson Stott (+900, FanDuel)

We are going to take a chance with a long shot here. Although Bryson Stott is not a ‘power-hitter,’ he has been swinging a really hot bat this month. For the season, Stott is having a great second big league season as he slashes .297/.344/.441 with a 111 wRC+ and 12 home runs.

In August, Stott is up to a slash of .267/.349/.480 with a wOBA of .366 and a 123 wRC+. He also has hit three home runs this month, improving his Barrel% by 2%. While his Barrel% is only at 6%, which is not great, he is swinging a nice bat right now for a surging Phillies team.

According to BallParkPal.com, this game has a 37% home run boost, with the wind blowing out hard tonight with high humidity, which makes for excellent home run conditions. He has a matchup tonight against Miles Mikolas, who does not give up a lot of hard contact but ranks in the 43rd percentile in Barrel%. Mikolas is also due for some regression, and he has struggled against lefties, allowing a slash of .278/.311/.440 with eight home runs.

Stott is actually slightly better against left-handed pitching, but he hits for more power against righties, and at a +900 price, he is well worth a shot tonight.

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Dansby Swanson (+560, FanDuel)

The Cubs may be the most fun team to watch right now, and Dansby Swanson has played a significant role in that. While he is not hitting the ball as well as usual, he still carries a 110 wRC+, and his xwOBA of .361 points towards some positive regression.

Luckily, he is having one of the better power-hitting seasons of his career. His Barrel% is at a career-best 12.5%, which ranks in the 81st percentile. He also ranks in the league’s top half in HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, and average exit velocity.

Although Swanson is only batting .173 this month, he is still finding ways to be productive at the plate. His ISO is up to .280, and he has six home runs in 21 games played this month. His Barrel% is slightly down but still at a high enough level that we feel comfortable with him hitting another one.

While he is playing in one of the worst ballparks for a right-handed hitter to hit a home run, the wind is blowing out in Pittsburgh, and he has a favorable matchup against Mitch Keller. While Keller is due for some slight positive regression, he still gives up a lot of barrels, and he has struggled this month, as he has a 5.73 ERA and an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in three starts.

Although he is not hitting the ball as well as earlier this season, Swanson is still finding barrels and should be in an excellent spot to hit another one out tonight.

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +6500 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $6,500 if both home run props cash tonight. 

Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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