Welcome back to another great week of baseball. We have a full slate of action tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to place MLB wagers, including any time home run bets. Here, we break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Monday, Aug. 28.
Last week was tough for our daily home run picks, but we are still having a good month. The season is starting to wind down, so let’s end this season hot, starting tonight with two great home run predictions with some great value.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Monday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, also check out our MLB odds page to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers and browse the top online baseball betting sites.
MLB Home Run Picks (08/28/2023)
Remember that the odds for home run props change throughout the day. This means the odds for our home run picks may differ from when you place a wager on them. This is why shopping the odds from the top sportsbooks is essential to maximizing your profits.
J.T. Realmuto (+430, FanDuel)
After a rough start to the season, the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto has been swinging a hot bat this month. In 18 games played, Realmuto is slashing .288/.329/.485 with a 119 wRC+. While he is still striking out at a high clip, and his Barrel% is slightly down, he is making more contact on pitches in the zone, and his Barrel% still sits at 10% this month.
It is clear that Realmuto is at the end of his prime offensive seasons, but he is still one of the better offensive catchers in baseball. Despite being in a “down-season”, Realmuto ranks in the 73rd percentile in Barrel% and the top half in HardHit%, max exit velocity, and xSLG.
For whatever reason, Realmuto has struggled at home this season and has crushed the ball on the road. However, he has a favorable matchup against Lucas Giolito and a terrible Angels team. Los Angeles traded for Giolito in hopes of fixing its questionable rotation.
Instead, Giolito, as well as the team as a whole, has been a failure. In five starts with the Angels, Giolito has a 6.67 ERA, 6.12 FIP, and is allowing a 12.2% Barrel%. He also has allowed seven home runs in just 27 IP, and on the season, Giolito ranks in the bottom 40% of the league in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, chase rate, and HardHit%.
Giolito has also not been effective against righties this season, and Realmuto is one of the better right-on-right hitters in baseball. Even though he is not having his best season, Realmuto is in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight, and at a +430 price, it is well worth a play.
Luis Robert (+540, FanDuel)
For the first time, Luis Robert is showcasing why he was one of the top prospects in baseball. He has finally put everything together and has become one of the best players in the game. The only problem is the White Sox are a disaster.
Robert is slashing .265/.321/.554 with a .354 xwOBA and a 133 wRC+. He also has 34 home runs and sits on career-highs in ISO (.289) and Barrel% (14.6%). While he has cooled off this month, he still has been crushing the ball.
The White Sox season has been over practically since the beginning, but Robert has been the lone bright spot. Tonight, he plays at Camden Yards, a tough place to hit a home run. However, Robert has a favorable matchup against Grayson Rodriguez.
Baltimore’s top pitching prospect has had a rough rookie season, and while he is due for some regression, he still is getting hammered. In 87 IP, Rodriguez has a 1.55 HR/9, and he ranks in the league’s bottom half in HardHit%, Barrel%, xwOBA, average exit velocity, xSLG, and xBA.
While Robert is noticeably better against lefties, he still hits right-handed pitching hard. Getting this home run prop at a +540 price is some great value, as Robert should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +3292 odds, which means a $100 bettor would win $3,292 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hits, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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