MLB Home Run Props: Two HR Picks to Consider for Thursday, Aug. 31

Welcome back to another day of baseball. We have an unusually small slate tonight, with only four games scheduled. However, that will not stop us from finding the best MLB bets of the night, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop picks for Thursday, Aug. 31.

Our picks did not produce a winner last night, but it still has been a profitable month for our daily home run predictions. Although there are not a lot of games tonight, we still have poured through the data and have come up with the best home run picks of the night. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Thursday night.

More: Thursday’s MLB strikeout props | World Series odds | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, also check out our MLB odds page to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers and browse the best MLB betting sites. 

MLB Home Run Picks (08/31/2023)

While the odds for home run props change throughout the day, the odds listed below present the best odds available at our sportsbook partners.

Matt Olson

If you have been following our daily home run props series, you know that Matt Olson has been the guy we have picked the most this season. Not only is Olson having a career season, but he has also been on fire this month. 

In August, Olson is slashing .304/.425/.578 with a .412 wOBA and a 160 wRC+. He also has seven home runs, a .275 ISO, and his Barrel% sits at 11.3%. That number is down from his season total (17.3%), but it still shows that he is crushing the ball, and Olson is still due for some slight positive regression. 

For the season, Olson ranks in the top 5% of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, BB%, and Barrel%. His strikeout numbers are slightly up this season, but not enough to be alarmed, as his BB% is up 4%. Olson has also been demolishing fastballs this season, as he has a 68.1% HardHit% against the four-seamer this year, and he has over a 60% HardHit% on both sinkers and cutters as well. 

While he has a tough matchup against the Dodgers and Lance Lynn, there is no better power-hitter on the planet right now than Olson, and Lynn has had trouble avoiding hard contact this season. While he has been much better with the Dodgers, Lynn still has a 10.2% Barrel%, and his HR/9 sits at 2.03. 

With Los Angeles, Lynn’s ERA is down to 2.03, and he is 4-0 in five starts. However, he still has a 1.74 HR/9 and is having a hard time avoiding barrels. It does not help his cause that he gives up significantly more power to left-handed hitters, and Olson has a slash of .271/.396/.604 with a 1.000 OPS and a .333 ISO against righties. 

Lynn is a fastball pitcher, which plays very well for Olson tonight. The odds may not be great at this point in the season, but talking Olson to hit a home run tonight is well worth a play. 

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Jorge Soler

After entering a bit of a lull this summer, Jorge Soler is back to mashing home runs. He has 10 home runs, a .371 ISO, and a 15.6% barrel% in August. While his BA sits at just .236, he is still producing at a high level and hitting the ball as well and as hard as anyone in this port. 

Soler is still striking out at a high clip this month, but he is going up against a Nationals pitching staff that does not strike many people out, especially tonight’s starter, Joan Adon. While Adon is due for some significant positive regression, his xERA and xFIP still are not great, and he has given up more hard contact than ever this season. His HardHit% of 44.9% and Barrel% of 8.7% is very concerning against Soler. 

Overall, Soler is not as good against righties as he is with left-handed pitching. However, he still has 21 home runs against righties, and the Nationals’ bullpen gives up a ton of hard contact. While Nationals’ Park is not a tremendous home-run park, and the wind blowing in does not help, Soler is hitting the ball as hard as ever, and this month, he has taken his game to another level. 

He is playing a little banged-up but is still expected to go tonight, and he has an easier pitching staff to deal with. 

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1497 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,497 if both home run props cash tonight. 

Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses

Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from the top US sports betting apps at Gaming Today.