Happy Friday, and welcome back to another great night of baseball. We have a full slate of games tonight, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to place an MLB wager, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Friday, Sept. 1.
Our picks did not produce a winner last night, but one of our home run predictions did not even play, and the other played in a fantastic game. Today is the first of the month, which means we have a clean slate.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, also check out our MLB odds page to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers and browse the best MLB betting sites.
MLB Home Run Picks (09/01/2023)
While the odds for home run props change throughout the day, the odds listed below present the best odds available at our sportsbook partners.
Although the Texas Rangers are starting to slip down the AL West standings, they still are a tremendous offense with a lot of power. You can argue that no Ranger has more pop in his bat than Adolis Garcia.
With a home run earlier this week, he reached 32 home runs on the season, which is a new career high. He is also currently sitting on career highs in ISO (.246), SLG (.495), OPS (.823), HardHit% (50%), and Barrel% (15.3%). Garcia ranks in the top 10% of the league in HardHit%, Barrel%, xSLG, average exit velocity, and xwOBA.
He cooled down in August, as Garcia only slashed .206/.313/.454 with a 108 wRC+. However, he still has a .247 ISO, seven home runs, and his Barrel% of 12.1% is still very impressive. Luckily, Garcia is playing at home tonight, where he has absolutely crushed the ball.
In 64 games played in Texas this season, Garcia has a slash of .284/.369/.608 with a .977 OPS and 21 home runs with a .323 ISO. While he is going up against a solid starter in Joe Ryan, who is due for some positive regression, Ryan has given up a lot of power this season.
His HR/9 is up to 1.79, and he gives up an 8% Barrel%. Ryan does have a high strikeout rate, and Garcia’s K% reached 30% in August. However, Ryan struggled in his two starts last month. In 9.0 IP, Ryan had an 8.00 ERA and a 9.37 FIP. He also allowed five home runs, which is alarming for only pitching one full game’s worth of innings.
The Twins bullpen is also a mess, and although Garcia is struggling, he is still hitting the ball hard and should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
The former No.1 overall pick did not get off to the best start in his MLB career. He made his debut last season, and he was obviously overwhelmed. This season started the same, which was very alarming for Tigers’ fans.
However, Spencer Torkelson has been crushing the ball lately and looks like he will become a top-tier power hitter. Since the All-Star break, Torkelson has 12 home runs, a .346 wOBA, and a 120 wRC+. While his strikeout rate is still high, and he is only batting .226, he is crushing the ball and has improved his BB% to 11.2%.
He also has an incredible 19% Barrel% and a 56% HardHit%. While he is only batting .120 over the last week, it is safe to say Torkelson is starting to show why he was the first pick in the MLB draft.
Although Detroit is on the road tonight, they are playing a horrible White Sox team with a mediocre starter in Touki Toussaint. It also helps that Torkelson has been much better on the road, slashing .246/.315/.500 with a .815 OPS and a 119 wRC+. His ISO is also .254 on the road, and he has 16 of his 24 home runs this season away from home.
Not only does Toussaint have a 4.85 ERA and a 6.67 BB/9, but he is also due for some significant regression. He is giving up more hard contact than ever this season, and he just does not have a good feel for his stuff right now. He has flashed his potential, but Toussaint is not a consistent pitcher, and if he makes a mistake, Torkelson will be ready to make him pay.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2000 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,000 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
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