MLB Home Run Props: Two HR Picks to Consider for Tuesday, Sept. 5

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Welcome back to another day of baseball. We have a loaded 15-game slate, giving you plenty of betting opportunities, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday, Sept. 5. 

Our picks did not produce a winner last time out. However, we always start a new month with a clean slate, and our home run picks for tonight have great value and favorable matchups. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday night.

More: Today’s MLB strikeout props | World Series odds | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, also check out our MLB odds page to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers and browse the best MLB betting sites

MLB Home Run Picks (09/05/2023)

While the odds for home run props change throughout the day, the odds listed below present the best odds available at our sportsbook partners.

Max Kepler

With a massive 20-6 win over Cleveland last night, the Twins have essentially locked up this mediocre division race. However, they still have two more games in Cleveland, so the urgency to win and further their division lead is still there. 

Last night, the Twins jumped on Cleveland early and never looked back. While the weather conditions will not be as favorable at Progressive Field as last night, it is still a hot and windy day in Cleveland. This means the home run hitters in this game have a significant edge, and no one has hit better at this ballpark than Max Kepler. 

Although he struggled to start the season, Kepler has been red-hot since the All-Star break. In 45 games, Kepler has a .306/.371/.563 slash with a .394 wOBA and a 155 wRC+. He also has increased his ISO (.256) and has been smashing the ball, with a 14.3% Barrel% and a 93.1 MPH average exit velocity. 

The increase in his strikeout rate and decrease in his walk rate is concerning, but with how he has been hitting the ball, it does not matter. Although he has a tough matchup with AL Rookie of the Year candidate Tanner Bibee, Kepler has crushed right-handed pitching this season, and Bibee is due for some mild regression. 

The main reason for this home run prop pick is how well Kepler has hit the ball against this team and at this ballpark. He has 22 career home runs against Cleveland, with 16 coming at Progressive Field. While he is only batting .210 career against Cleveland, at Progressive Field, he has a .528 SLG and an OPS of .817. 

The wind is blowing out toward right field, which gives Kepler a pretty good shot of hitting one out if he gets a good pitch to hit. 

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Jake Burger

Jake Burger is enjoying a breakout season, and since becoming a Miami Marlin, he has been crushing the ball. In 29 games played with the Marlins, Burger has a slash of .313/.366/.509 with a .375 wOBA and a 137 wRC+. He also has five home runs and a 14% Barrel%. 

While he is due for some slight regression, that does not change the fact that he is crushing the ball this season. He ranks in the top 10% of the league in Barrel% and xSLG and in the top 20% in xwOBA, average exit velocity, and HardHit%. 

Although the Dodgers are coming to town, and Clayton Kershaw is getting the start, Burger still is in a good spot to hit a home run tonight. Not only is Kershaw due for some significant regression, but he is giving up more hard contact than ever this season, and Burger has dominated left-handed pitching. 

In 59 games against Southpaws, Burger has a sash of .248/.313/.590 with a .904 OPS and a .343 ISO. He also has 10 home runs and has a 48.6% HardHit%. Kershaw has done a decent job at limiting hard contact to righties for his career, but this season is a different story. 

Over his last four starts, Kershaw has a 2.12 ERA, but he has also allowed four home runs in just 17.0 IP. With the way Burger is swinging the bat, he is in an excellent spot to hit one off Kershaw. If he does not get one off the future Hall of Famer, the Dodgers bullpen, while overall great, has been inconsistent all season.

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +3496 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $3,496 if both home run props cash tonight. 

Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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