MLB Home Run Props: Best Odds for Aaron Judge, Brandon Nimmo for Wednesday, Sept. 6

Welcome back to another day of baseball. We have a loaded slate of action tonight, giving bettors plenty of chances to place an MLB wager, including an anytime home run bet. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday, Sept. 6. 

Our daily home run picks cashed a ticket for the first time this month last night, thanks to Jake Burger of the Miami Marlins. Tonight, we have two more home run predictions with favorable matchups. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday night.

More: Today’s MLB strikeout props | World Series odds | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting

Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, also check out our MLB odds page to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers and browse the best MLB betting sites. 

MLB Home Run Picks (09/06/2023)

While the odds for home run props change throughout the day, the odds listed below present the best odds available at our sportsbook partners.

Aaron Judge

Although the New York Yankees are in danger of their first losing season since 1992, they are still must-watch TV when Aaron Judge is in the lineup. Coming off a historic 2022 MVP season, Judge started this season screaming hot and looked like he could potentially break his own AL home run record. 

However, an injury he suffered while running through a fence at Dodgers stadium saw him miss several weeks of action. Still, he is putting up impressive numbers. In 84 games played this season, Judge has 31 home runs and a 3.9 fWAR. 

He is not hitting the ball as well as last season, but he has career-highs in Barrel% (27.9%) and HardHit% (63.2%). His strikeout numbers are also slightly up, but with how well he hits the ball, you are fine with him being a 25%+ K% guy. 

Since coming back from injury, Judge is not hitting the ball as well as he did to start the season, but he still has 12 home runs, a .316 ISO, and a 24% Barrel% in just 35 games. Tonight, he has a matchup against a bad Detroit Tigers team and a starting pitcher in Matt Manning, who is due for some significant regression. 

Manning does not strike guys out at a high rate, and he is giving up more power than ever this season. He has been able to produce some good results, especially over his last six starts, as he has a 2.80 ERA. However, his xERA of 5.42 and xFIP of 5.36 point towards some significant regression. Although the Yankees are not that good this season, they still have some dangerous players in this lineup, including Judge. 

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Brandon Nimmo

The Mets are probably the most surprising team in baseball this season. After finishing last season as a 100-win club, many thought this team, which added some big names in the offseason, could compete for a title. 

Well, that is certainly not the case, as they have started to unload some players and currently sit in fourth place in the NL East. The rest of this season will serve as a tryout for next year and 2025 for some fringe players on the team. Luckily, there are still some positives to take away from this season, including Brandon Nimmo‘s new-found power. 

In 132 games, Nimmo has a career-high 22 home runs, and he also currently sits on career bests in Barrel% (9.9%) and HardHit% (47.3%). Nimmo is still not a great power-hitting player, but he ranks in the top 20% of the league in xwOBA, average exit velocity, HardHit%, and Barrel%. 

Over his last 29 games, Nimmo has been on fire, slashing .303/.387/.541 with a .397 wOBA and a 156 wRC+. He also has a .239 ISO, 12 home runs, and an 11.6% Barrel% in that time. Tonight, the Mets are in Washington, one of the top 10 home run ballparks according to Park Factor by Statcast, and the Nationals will send out Joan Adon to get the start. 

Although Adon is due for some positive regression, he still gives up a lot of hard contact, especially against left-handed hitters. 

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1528 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,528 if both home run props cash tonight. 

Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

Best MLB Sports Betting Bonuses

Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season. 

Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from the top US sports betting apps at Gaming Today.