Welcome back to another day of baseball. We have a short slate of games tonight, but there are still plenty of MLB wagers to be made, including anytime home run bets. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Thursday, Sept. 7.
Our picks did not cash a winner last night, but we are still up this month. Although the slate is light, we have two home run picks that carry some tremendous value.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Thursday night.
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, also check out our MLB odds page to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers and browse the best MLB betting sites.
MLB Home Run Picks (09/07/2023)
While the odds for home run props change throughout the day, the odds listed below present the best odds available at our sportsbook partners.
This could be true for the last few seasons, but it is officially time to push the panic button on Giancarlo Stanton. Although his strikeout rate is slightly down, he is only slashing .203/.281/.444 with a .307 wOBA. If the season ended today, it would also be the first in his career that he has a sub-100 wRC+.
Luckily, he still absolutely crushes the ball. He enters tonight with 22 home runs in 87 games, and he has three bombs in his last six games. He still is simply not a very well-rounded offensive player, as he strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk very much, and whiffs at a lot of pitches.
However, he still ranks in the top 5% of the league in average exit velocity and Barrel%, and Stanton is also in the 90th percentile in HardHit%. While his decline at the plate is alarming, Stanton is still a great hitter against left-handed pitching. In 59 ABs against southpaws, Stanton has a .356 ISO and a 160 wRC+.
Tonight, he will get a lefty in Eduardo Rodriguez. Although Rodriguez is one of the better southpaws in the game and does not give up a ton of hard contact, he is due for some regression. He also gives up more power to right-handed hitters, and over his last four starts, his HR/9 is up to 1.17, and he has a 4.70 ERA and 13% Barrel%.
There is no hotter team than the Seattle Mariners, and Julio Rodriguez is a big reason why. He had a slow start to the season, and his season-long numbers are still not up to what he produced last year.
However, Rodriguez has been out of his mind since August, slashing .383/.423/.707 with a .469 wOBA and a 209 wRC+. He also has 10 home runs, a .323 ISO, and a 14.3% Barrel% and 55.2% HardHit%. For the season, he ranks in the top 25% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel%, and HardHit%.
Rodriguez is also a better player on the road, with a slash of .289/.345/.507 with a .852 OPS and a 131 wRC+. He still is a great player at home, but for whatever reason, he has performed much better away from Seattle.
He has a tough matchup against a deep Rays pitching staff tonight, with Zack Littell getting the start. Although his role is more as an opener, he has been pitching deeper into games as of late with Tampa Bay’s pitching injuries. He is averaging a little over 5.0 IP over his last seven starts.
Typically, we would avoid a team that starts with an ‘opener,’ but Litell is going longer into games, which helps Rodriguez as he is one of the best right-on-right hitters in the game, and Littell gives up a lot of hard contact.
Over his last seven starts, Littell has given up seven home runs in just 38.2 IP and is due for even more regression.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2073 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,073 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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Check out each sportsbook’s bonus offers before placing your MLB home run prop bets. Each sportsbook you sign up with opens you up to hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, which can help build your bankroll for a long MLB season.
Here are the best sportsbook bonuses from the top US sports betting apps at Gaming Today.
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