Happy Friday, and welcome back to another great day of baseball. We have a loaded slate of games tonight, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to place an MLB wager, including any time home run bets. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run prop picks for Friday, Sept. 8.
Our picks did not produce a winner last night, but we are still up this week. Tonight, we have two picks from some of the best power hitters in baseball with some tremendous value.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run prop picks for Friday night.
More: Today’s MLB strikeout props | World Series odds | MLB betting promotions | MLB MVP odds | Run line betting
Tonight’s MLB Odds
Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, also check out our MLB odds page to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers and browse the best MLB betting sites.
MLB Home Run Picks (09/08/2023)
While the odds for home run props change throughout the day, the odds listed below present the best odds available at our sportsbook partners.
Luis Robert
Even though the White Sox season has long been over, they still have some great talent on this team, including Luis Robert. Entering tonight, Robert has a .270/.323/.557 slash with a 133 wRC+ and a fWAR of 5.1.
Robert also has a career-high in home runs (35) and currently sits on a 15.5% Barrel%, 41.4% HardHit%, and a .287 ISO. Over his last 26 games, Robert has increased his Barrel% to 18.8% and cut down on his K% by 5%.
Tonight, he is not playing in the most home-run-friendly ballpark, and despite being a division rival, he has yet to hit a home run at Comerica Park. However, the Tigers will send out Reese Olson to get the start tonight, which could give Robert an early edge in cashing his home run prop.
Olson has started 14 games during his rookie season, and while he has shown some flashes, he still has struggled. He enters tonight with a 1.25 HR/9, and his xERA and xFIP point towards some regression. He also ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in average exit velocity and Barrel%. While Olson does a nice job at limiting hard contact against righties, Robert still hits right-handed pitching hard, with 28 home runs and a .287 ISO.
Olson has put up back-to-back good starts, including 7.0 scoreless innings against the White Sox in his last time out. But, with how Robert is swinging the bat, he should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
Freddie Freeman
It is hard to believe just how good Freddie Freeman has been this season. He enters tonight slashing .333/.4111/.572 with a .409 xwOBA and a 165 wRC+. He also has 25 home runs and leads the league in doubles (52).
Freeman also ranks in the top 5% of the league in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and he is in the 100th percentile in Sweet-Spot%. His power-hitting numbers have slightly dropped since August, but he still slashes .348/.418/.563 with a .414 wOBA over his last 35 games.
He also has the advantage of playing at National Park tonight, a left-handed friendly ballpark, according to Park Factor by Statcast. As a former division rival, he has played at this park a lot and has had a lot of success.
In 93 career games at Nationals Park, Freeman is slashing .314/.404/.500 with a .904 OPS and 11 home runs. While the Nationals have one of its promising young arms getting the start tonight, he has given up a lot of hard contact and is due for some significant regression.
MacKenzie Gore has a 1.63 HR/9 on the season and ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in Barrel% and HardHit%. He also has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a slash of .308/.408/.449. It does not help his cause that Freeman is one of the best left-on-left hitters in baseball.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2344 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,344 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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