MLB Home Run Props: HR Picks for Nolan Jones, Max Muncy on Tuesday, Sept. 12

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Welcome back to another terrific day of baseball. We have a loaded slate of games tonight, which means there are plenty of anytime home run bets to be made. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday, Sept. 12. 

Our pick did not give out a winner last night, but we are back with two more valuable home run predictions from two of the game’s hottest power hitters. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run props for Tuesday night.

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, also check out our MLB odds page to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers and browse the best MLB betting sites

MLB Home Run Picks (09/12/2023)

Nolan Jones has a slash of .280/.360/.513 with a .371 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ on the season.
Nolan Jones has a slash of .280/.360/.513 with a .371 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ on the season. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

While the odds for home run props change throughout the day, the odds listed below present the best odds available at our sportsbook partners.

Nolan Jones

Although he debuted last year, Nolan Jones is in his rookie season, and while it is likely too late to win, he has quickly climbed up the NL Rookie of the Year oddsboard . Jones has a slash of .280/.360/.513 with a .371 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ on the season. 

The problems he had when he came up last season with Cleveland are still evident, as he has a 32.2% K% and a high Whiff%. However, he has really showcased his power, as he has 15 home runs in 87 games, and Jones ranks in the 91st percentile in Barrel%. 

Jones started the season hot but then cooled off significantly during the beginning days of the Summer months. Since August, he has been swinging the bat well, slashing .289/.370/.548 with a .386 wOBA and a 129 wRC+. He also has a 19.1% Barrel% and 41.6% HardHit% in that same period, with a .259 ISO and six home runs. 

While he has a tough matchup against a strong Cubs pitching staff, Chicago is sending out Javier Assad for his ninth start of the season, and he is due for some significant regression. Entering tonight, Assad has a 2.83 ERA and is 3-3 on the season. However, his xERA and xFIP are concerning. While he does not give up too much hard contact, Assad has had a couple of rough starts since August, especially his last one, where he gave up two home runs. 

Assad has also struggled against lefties this season, and Jones has crushed right-handed pitching. With this game in Colorado and Jones hitting the ball well, he should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight. 

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Max Muncy

Last night, one of our home run props came from this game. A ton of runs were scored, but none came off our home run prediction. We are returning to this game tonight, as both lineups are full of home run hitters, especially the Dodgers.

We went with a Padre to hit a home run last night, and tonight, we are going to the other side and picking Max Muncy. Although he has a 121 wRC+ and 2.7 fWAR, Muncy is only batting .208 this season. Luckily, he has 35 home runs, which is one off his career-best, and he ranks in the top 20% of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel%, and HardHit%. 

He has not been swinging the bat as well this month, but he still has three home runs, a 55.6% HardHit%, and eight hard hits over his last four games. Although the Padres have one of their best starters on the mound tonight in Michael Wacha, he is also due for some significant regression, as his xERA is almost two entire runs higher than his actual ERA. 

He does not give up a ton of power, but Wacha has had three straight, brutal outings, allowing three home runs and a 10.9% Barrel% in just 15.1 IP. Wacha does a nice job at limiting left-handed power, but Muncy has a .895 OPS and .302 ISO against righties this season. 

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1958 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,958 if both home run props cash tonight. 

Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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