Welcome back to another great day of baseball. We have a full slate of games today, which gives bettors plenty of opportunities to place an anytime home run bet. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Wednesday, Sept. 13.
Our picks did not give out a winner last night, and I think it is safe to say that we are once again in a slump. However, we still poured through the data and have come up with the best MLB home run predictions for a loaded schedule.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run props for Wednesday night.
MLB Home Run Picks (09/13/2023)
Before the start of last season, Ryan McMahon agreed to a massive contract extension that will keep him in Colorado until 2028. Although he has regressed a little this season, he still is hitting the ball hard and has 22 home runs.
His ISO is up to .198, which is just below the average of a really good power hitter but is also his highest since 2020. McMahon also ranks in the top 30% of the league in xSLG, average exit velocity, xwOBA, and is in the 92nd percentile in Sweet-Spot%.
The problem is that McMahon has been ice-cold this month, slashing only .158/.256/.237 with a 24 wRC+. Luckily, he still is hitting right-handed pitching hard during this stretch; he is just not getting the results. For the season, McMahon has a slash of .270/.357/.508 with a .856 OPS and an ISO of .239.
He has also hit the ball very well at home this season, with 13 home runs and a .226 ISO. He will go up against a good Cubs pitching staff tonight but has a struggling Jameson Taillon getting the start. Taillon is giving up more hard contact than ever, and his Barrel% of 11.1% is undoubtedly alarming.
While he has been better as of late, with a 3.68 ERA over his last five starts, Taillon still is giving up a ton of power, with seven home runs in his last 29.1 IP.
It has been a while since we have predicted Kyle Schawrber to hit a home run. He has treated us very well during our daily MLB home run prop picks, and he is currently hitting the crap out of the ball.
His batting average still is below the Mendoza line, but he has a 121 wRC+, and his xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel%, and HardHit% rank in the top 20% of the league. Although Schwarber’s Barrel% is down 4% from last season, he still ranks in the top 10 among qualified hitters.
In September, Schwarber became one of the best hitters in the game. Through 12 games this month, Schwarber is slashing .326/.500/.744 with a .506 wOBA and a 226 wRC+. His ISO is also up to .419, and he has an incredible 24% Barrel%.
Although his strikeout rate is also up this month, so is his walk rate, and with a 68% HardHit%, it is clear that whenever he makes contact, he is likely hitting the ball hard.
With Spencer Strider on the mound for the Braves, Schawrber’s strikeout rate is certainly concerning, but Strider has given up a lot of hard contact this season, as he ranks in the 28th percentile in Barrel%. He still is striking guys out at an insane clip, but his fastball has not been as effective this season, and Schwarber has a 55.7% HardHit% against four-seam fastballs this season, with a .520 xSLG and a .379 wOBA.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2032 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,032 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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