MLB Home Run Props: Odds for Luis Robert, Pete Alonso for Thursday, Sept. 14 is an independent sports news and information service. has partnerships with some of the top legal and licensed sportsbook companies in the US. When you claim a bonus offer or promotion through a link on this site, Gaming Today may receive referral compensation from the sportsbook company. Although the relationships we have with sportsbook companies may influence the order in which we place companies on the site, all reviews, recommendations, and opinions are wholly our own. They are the recommendations from our authors and contributors who are avid sports fans themselves.

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Welcome back to another great day of action on the diamond. Tonight’s slate features 10 terrific games, which gives bettors plenty of chances to place an anytime home run bet. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Thursday, Sept. 14.


Our picks are finally on the board this week, thanks to Ryan McMahon’s seventh-inning solo shot. We have two of the game’s best power hitters on our home run predictions card tonight, and both have excellent betting value. 

Let’s look at our best MLB home run props for Thursday night.

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Tonight’s MLB Odds

Here are the betting odds from the top sports betting apps for the games in which we have a home run prop bet. Before placing your bets, also check out our MLB odds page to ensure you get the best numbers for your wagers and browse the best MLB betting sites.

MLB Home Run Picks (09/14/2023)

Luis Robert

Although he is having a rough September, Luis Robert has been the lone bright spot on the White Sox. This is his first season playing over 100 games, and so far, he is slashing .268/.321/.544 with a .361 wOBA and a 130 wRC+. 

He also has 35 home runs, a .276 ISO, and Robert ranks in the 92nd percentile in Barrel%. Robert is also in the top 20% of the league in xwOBA and xSLG, which shows he is due for some positive regression. 

Again, this month has been a challenge for Robert, as he does not have a home run and is only slashing .219/.257/.281 with a 45 wRC+. However, he has a solid matchup against a struggling Twins bullpen and tonight’s starter, Kenta Maeda. He is also due for some slight positive regression, but Maeda is giving up more hard contact than ever this season, especially against right-handed hitters. 

In 45 IP against righties this season, Maeda allows a .261/.305/.511 slash with a .345 wOBA. Robert is noticeably better against left-handed pitching, but he still has a .529 SLG, .837 OPS, and a .275 ISO against righties. It also helps that the Twins bullpen has an 8.5% Barrel% and a 1.58 HR/9 rate over the last two weeks. 

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Pete Alonso

Through all the trade rumors and all the drama from the Mets this season, Pete Alonso continues to be one of the best power-hitters in the game. His batting average and OBP are down by a noticeable clip, but Alonso is still a great offensive player. 

He has improved his ISO to .306, and with a .387 xwOBA and .557 xSLG, both of which rank in the top 5% of the league, he is due for a slight uptick in production. Alonso is also currently sitting on a career-best 15.8% Barrel%, with 44 home runs this season. 

The Mets’ season has been a disaster, and with rumors that Alonso could be traded, it is pretty clear that this team has given up. Luckily, Alonso has been crushing the ball since the trade deadline, with a .352 ISO and a 19.2% Barrel%. He also has 14 home runs and a .395 wOBA in 40 games. 

Arizona will send out Merrill Kelly tonight, and although he does not give up a ton of hard contact, his xERA and xFIP point toward some significant regression. Kelly has been pretty strong over his last two starts, allowing only two earned runs in 12.2 IP. However, he has also had some clunkers in the second half of the season, and he gives up more power to right-handed hitters. 

Alonso is not the type of hitter you want to face when you are due to give up some bombs. Even though Kelly keeps the ball in the yard, Alonso is scorching hot this month, with five home runs in just 11 games, and he should add to that tonight. 

MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds

You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +1648 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $1,648 if both home run props cash tonight. 

Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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