Happy Friday, and welcome back to another great day of baseball. We have a full 15-game slate tonight, which gives bettors plenty of chances to place an anytime home run bet. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB home run prop picks for Friday, Sept. 15.
Our picks did not produce a winner last night, but we are back with another round of MLB home run predictions from two of the better power hitters in the game.
Let’s look at our best MLB home run props for Friday night.
MLB Home Run Picks (09/15/2023)
The Texas Rangers are red-hot right now, and Corey Seager has played a big role in their recent play. Over his last 13 games, Seager is slashing .327/.373/.745 with a .453 wOBA and a 192 wRC+. He has also decreased his K% to 13.6% and has five home runs with a .418 ISO.
Seager also has increased his Barrel% to 12.8% and HardHit% to 51.1%, and he has a very favorable matchup against a struggling Lucas Giolito. While the entire season has been a mess for Giolito, since being acquired by Cleveland, things have gone from bad to worse.
In two starts with the Guardians, Giolito has a 10.34 ERA, and he has allowed nine home runs in just 15.2 IP. At this point, Cleveland is out of the playoff race, so they will likely turn to Giolito to eat up some innings. This means Seager should have a couple of cracks at trying to hit one out against Giolito.
For the season, Giolito has been crushed by left-handed hitting, and Seager is dominating righties this season, with a slash of .355/.431/.718 with a 1.149 OPS and a 201 wRC+. Throughout his career, Giolito’s best pitch has been his fastball, but this season, it carries an xSLG of .502 and a 50% HardHit%.
While Seager has hit off-speed pitches better this season, he has always loved hitting fastballs, and he has a 67.3% HardHit% against four-seamers this year, which is the pitch Giolito throws the most.
Even though Austin Riley has not been as good of a hitter as last season, he still has a 124 wRC+ and an fWAR of 4.6. On the season, he slashes .277/.339/.511 with a xwOBA of .366. While he is walking less, Riley has also cut down on his K%, as well as his swinging strike rate.
Riley’s Barrel% and HardHit% are also down this season, but he still ranks in the top 20% of the league in those categories. He also is in the top 15% of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, and average exit velocity.
The Braves are the first team in baseball to clinch their division, and they did so with a dominating month from the plate. Riley is not hitting the ball quite as hard this month, but he still has three home runs and a slash of .262/.360/.548 with a 140 wRC+.
Miami will send out Johnny Cueto to get the start tonight. While he is due for some significant positive regression, that is because he has not pitched a lot this season. In 41.0 IP, Cueto has an HR/9 of 2.63 and a Barrel% of 9.2%. In his two starts this month, Cueto has allowed three home runs and eight earned runs in just 8.2 IP.
Although Riley hits left-handed pitching much harder, Cueto has given up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters this season, and with how well Riley has been swinging the bat, he should be in an excellent spot to hit one out tonight.
MLB Home Run Prop Parlay Odds
You can parlay our MLB home run prop bets to maximize your winnings for tonight’s action. At FanDuel, our home run picks parlayed would give you +2073 odds at the time of this publication, which means a $100 bettor would win $2,073 if both home run props cash tonight.
Keep in mind that the odds are so high for a reason. It is hard to pick a single home run prop, let alone a two-leg parlay. But our home run picks have been perfect at times this season, and if our home run picks for tonight hit, you will walk away with a nice chunk of change.
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