MLB Over/Under Bet: A Strasburg-Fried rematch in Atlanta

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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 4:20 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Stephen Strasburg (16-5, 3.47 ERA) vs. Max Fried (15-4, 4.05 ERA)

What a season it’s been for Fried — my top sleeper going into the season, remember — in carving out a significant role on the Braves’ pitching staff. The 2012 first-round draft pick finally got his first opportunity to be a full-time member in a major league starting rotation this year and Fried has certainly rewarded Atlanta for that decision.

At first glance, it might appear Fried is currently mired in a bit of a rough patch, having allowed three or more runs in three straight start for the second time this year but that’s really not the case if you evaluate each of those performances.

In his last two outings (one of which being an 11-strikeout effort), Fried looked strong for most of the assignment until a troublesome final inning more than halfway into the game. Being at home tonight, where Fried is typically better compared to on the road, can aid him in getting back into more of a rhythm.

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Of course, it’s also been another marvelous campaign for Strasburg — and perhaps maybe his best yet. He’s in range of his career-best 242 K’s from a few years ago, not to mention while being tied for the eighth-lowest batting average against (.216) in all of baseball among qualified starters. He also ranks tied for seventh with an impressive 1.04 WHIP.

Some of Strasburg’s excellent work in 2019 has been showcased opposite the Braves. In fact, Strasburg was victorious in all three meetings this year, notching a 3.93 ERA and 23 punch-outs across 18.1 innings in the process.

Strasburg looks like he’s rolling again, too. Not only has the former No. 1 overall draft selection registered consecutive outings with double-digit strikeouts for the first time this year, he’s coming arguably his most dominant gem of the campaign when he delivered eight shutout innings to go with a season-high-tying 14 strikeouts during his last turn. Play: UNDER 9 (EV)

Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 76-69-10, -1.75 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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