Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Chris Archer (3-6, 5.73 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (3-6, 3.67 ERA)
Always nice to catch one of my favorite up-and-coming pitchers, Alcantara, in an afternoon getaway-day setting. As I’ve already covered a few times before in his young career, the 23-year-old right-hander has been just illuminating during the daytime.
Alcantara owns a sparkling 1.53 ERA in seven career starts during the day. He’s also held opponents to a measly .169/.258/.277 slash line when on the mound with the sun out. It’s quite the significant difference when you consider that opposing hitters are collectively recording a higher batting average (.285), on-base percentage (.396) and slugging percentage (.431) by more than 100 points each with Alcantara working at night.
Those leaning on Alcantara should also appreciate that this assignment is emanating from South Beach. His lifetime ERA in Marlins Park (2.98) is more than a full run better than on the road (4.22).
Meanwhile, the other starter in this series finale fits the bill of trying to buy a pitcher low before making an emergence. That would of course be in reference to Archer. The former Tampa Bay Ray ace has had his struggles this season, hence his 5.73 ERA, and he’s actually coming off an outing that saw him yield a season-high seven runs.
But Archer is better than what his overall numbers show and we’re catching him in an opportunistic spot to atone for his disappointing stats. Not only is he facing the Majors’ lowest-scoring club, but he’s also following up a start in which he surrendered a crooked number. In his eight-year career, Archer has displayed a real tendency to bounce back in his next turn after a poor outing.
It’s too bad I didn’t decide on this play until the total had already shifted from 8.5 to 8 but regardless, the under is my action for today. Play: UNDER 8 (-115)
Yesterday’s Result: Cubs-Dodgers Under 8 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 38-35-6, -1.05 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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