MLB Over/Under Bet: Another Bauer outage in store?

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New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Marcus Stroman (9-13, 3.21 ERA) vs. Trevor Bauer (11-12, 4.41 ERA)

Very, very telling that the over/under for this series finale is 8.5 — to be more specific, just a half-run higher than the closing line of Friday night’s superior matchup pitting National League Cy Young Award candidates Jacob deGrom and Luis Castillo against one another.

As much as I love Bauer and believe he’s still capable of winning at least one Cy Young during his career, the fact remains he’s been decisively below the level of his teammate Castillo this season. Stroman, of course, is no deGrom (and, really, no one else is).

Thus, the oddsmakers are tipping their hands and perhaps anticipating a low-scoring pace as well, which follows my line of thinking for this game.

First off, it looks like the normal version of Bauer is back. After struggling to find his footing with his new team, the former Cleveland Indian has gotten back into old form, garnering a pair of quality starts in his last two assignment while racking up 17 strikeouts to four walks in 14.1 innings during this span (and we won both those unders).

So, we can lean on Bauer to keep it going, as his prideful demeanor indicates he won’t simply relinquish the roll he’s on.

Unlike his counterpart today, Stroman responded well following his move to another team. Since he was traded to New York leading up to the deadline, the six-year veteran has assembled a respectable 3.86 ERA in nine starts. He’s also striking out more than a batter per inning in a Mets uniform, something he’s never done across a full season previously.

Stroman has proven he can be trusted in big games, and with his club’s time running out on getting into the postseason, he can be trusted here that least be decent.

Bettors surely should wait up until first pitch like I am to see if the line budges and goes to 9. With there being no chance it moves in the other direction, there’s no harm in waiting it out. Play: UNDER 8.5/9

Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Braves Under 8 (loss)

2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 85-76-11, -0.85 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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