MLB Over/Under Bet: Battle of the bullpens in Game 6

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ALCS Game 6

New York Yankees at Houston Astros Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 5:08 p.m. PT

TV: FS1

Probable pitchers: TBD vs. TBD

OK, normally I would never bet a game that consists of, well, two of the now-famed “bullpen games” colliding. Additionally, I wouldn’t even consider touching a matchup in which the pair of starters hasn’t even been announced as of the early afternoon (eastern time).

But with this being the only series left until we arrive at the Fall Classic, there’s really no choice. Nonetheless, there still might be enough here to formulate a smart bet on the total in this potential elimination affair.

Understand that when a team concedes to the bullpen day strategy, you’re obviously involving more pitchers in the effort. With this simple logic in mind, especially in a high-pressure contest for both sides, I think you’re more likely to run into someone that may yield a crooked number on either side.

That’s especially true when said relievers are tasked with trying to tame two decorated offenses that are overdue to supply more damage based on how the American League Championship Series combatants have hit a combined .132 (9-for-68!) with runners in scoring position. Sorry but that is simply not going to hold up.

Certain arms stick out more than others as being ripe for heavy lumber. Chad Green is probably going to kick off the proceedings for the Yankees, and while he’s generally been solid serving as an opener, the fact remains he owns a not-great 3.72 ERA in the role over 15 such assignments.

Some of the depth behind him isn’t exactly in the best shape, either. Adam Ottavino, for instance, has an ugly 11.57 ERA in seven postseason appearances while allowing a whopping 10 hitters to reach base in only 2.1 innings. J.A. Happ, as much as I like him as a starter, surrendered the walk-off homer in New York’s Game 2 loss and isn’t used to working out of the pen, so that might affect him. Happ has a career 5.48 ERA in the playoffs as it is.

Houston is most likely going to be using the pairing of Brad Peacock and rookie Jose Urquidy in some fashion to at least eat up the first few frames. The way the Yankees offense came alive last night to stave off their demise, I don’t see them being contained out of the gate by that setup.

With Giancarlo Stanton (quad) back from injury, it’s the Bronx Bombers at full health (other than Miguel Andujar) taking their licks at an assortment of pitchers they can hit.

For this over/under, since there’s no chance it goes to 9.5, I’m waiting up until first pitch to see if it maybe drops down a half-run before placing my bet. Play: OVER 8.5/9

Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Yankees Under 8 (WIN)

2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*

Regular Season: 89-78-12, +1.05 units

Playoffs: 12-4-1, +3.7 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit (playoffs 0.5 unit)

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