MLB Over/Under Bet: Bauer hosts Darvish in Cincy home debut

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Yu Darvish (4-5, 4.36 ERA) vs. Trevor Bauer (9-8, 3.85 ERA)

I’ve cashed on a Darvish vs. Bauer under before — when both were in the American League — and I sense the same result for their second meeting, this time in a National League park.

There’s a lot to like here, starting with Darvish. Since proclaiming that he feels the “best in my career” coming out of the All-Star break, the former Texas Ranger ace has been nothing short of outstanding. He’s made six starts in the second half, producing a splendid 2.17 ERA and 0.79 WHIP while holding opponents below the Mendoza Line with a .198 batting average against. 

Darvish has also racked up 38 strikeouts compared to only two walks (!) following the Midsummer Classic, a span consisting of 29 innings.

The opponent being Cincinnati can end up helping in Darvish’s quest to keep it going. The soon-to-be 33-year-old is 3-0 in six career starts against the Reds alongside a 2.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Additionally, this is a squad that’s only been downgraded on offense after the trade deadline.

Then there’s Bauer, who was one of the Reds imports for their deadline activity. He made his first start with the club last week, and while he didn’t really impress, this is still a spot the hard-throwing right-hander can come through in, especially mentally, being his home debut in Cincy.

One of the reasons to get excited about Bauer under NL rules is that he used to perform wonderfully in interleague play during his time in Cleveland. In 28 career starts (and one relief appearance) against NL opponents during his 6.5 years with the Indians, Bauer was 12-5 with a shiny 2.54 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

The Cubs are a tough draw for any starting hurler but Bauer is in a rare spot in which he’s allowed three earned runs or more in back-to-back starts. Typically, in these situations, Bauer has displayed a tendency to rebound, so we’ll count on him doing so once again with at least a fine showing. Play: UNDER 9 (-115)

Yesterday’s Result: Rockies-Padres Under 8.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 63-57-9, -0.85 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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