MLB Over/Under Bet: Bauer Outage in South Beach Tonight?

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Cleveland Indians at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Trevor Bauer (3-1, 1.99 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (1-2, 4.50 ERA)

For the second consecutive week, the Marlins and Indians will meet for a short two-game set, this time from Marlins Park.

Under that circumstance alone, how can you not love Bauer to continue his crusade of opposing hitters towards a very realistic Cy Young award? The eighth-year right-hander has simply been awesome once again so far in 2019, pitching into the seventh inning or deeper in all but one of his six starts. He’s also been tagged for more than two runs in a start only once. Clearly, Bauer is in the ace form right now that I always envisioned for him dating back to his earliest days in Arizona.

In this particular assignment, he draws one of the worst offenses in the league. The Fish have scored the fewest runs per game (2.79) of any team in baseball by a decisive amount while also hitting .227 as a ballclub, which ranks them 26th.

Bauer owns the sixth-best ERA (1.99) and he’s collectively limited opponents to a minuscule .167 batting average, placing him tied for third in baseball. And of course, it’s always worth pointing out his strikeouts have remained at a high level, too.

A signature standout outing from Bauer would be wonderful, as it means Alcantara — another one of my favorite pitchers — would have some room for error. He may not need it, though. The 23-year-old is coming off his best outing since his season debut — and it was against these Indians. In that effort, Alcantara allowed two runs (one earned) in five solid innings.

While it can be worrisome leaning on a pitcher when facing a lineup for the second straight start (like John Means in my bet last night), Alcantara’s stuff is so good that I don’t believe Cleveland will be able to adjust so easily. With another at-least decent outing here like I know he’s capable of, that’s all we may need.

With Under 7 currently featuring +105 odds, I’m going to wait before putting in my bet and monitor this line throughout the day to see if 7.5 pops up. Even if it doesn’t, I’m on this under bet but also follow me on Twitter to see when I settle on it. Play: UNDER 7/7.5

Yesterday’s Result: Orioles-White Sox Under 8.5 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 17-14-1, +1.1 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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