Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Over/Under: 10
First pitch: 11:20 a.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Jose Berrios (8-3, 2.86 ERA) vs. Danny Duffy (3-3, 4.64 ERA)
Wow, the linesmakers are making a pretty interesting call raising this total to 10. By comparison, this early showdown today between Berrios and Duffy has drawn a higher over/under than the series opener on Thursday (9.5), which featured a notably inferior matchup consisting of Jake Odorizzi and Glenn Sparkman.
It’s certainly an insult to Berrios, who looks like he’s on the verge of making his second consecutive All-Star team. While the right-hander is generally not as consistent on the road compared to within the confines of Target Field, that can be forgiven for this assignment given the role he’s been on as of late.
Berrios has been hot, stinging together a quality start in each of his last five turns in the rotation. He faced these Royals once earlier this season and notched a solid seven-inning, three-run outing. The 25-year-old can continue to be tailed, as he even stated his desire of winning 20 games this year, meaning he’s not going to let up.
His counterpart, Duffy, may not come off as the most dependable guy based on his current numbers but he’s better than that, illustrated by his more-respectable 4.24 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
Duffy has been inconsistent as of late but that can be chalked up to the nine-year veteran still getting comfortable again on a Major League mound after returning from injury at the end of April.
Fortunately, the key hitters in this afternoon’s Twins lineup — CJ Cron, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano — have not fared too successfully when tangling with Duffy. In fact, collectively for their careers, those six batters are just 25-for-98 (.255) with six extra-base hits against the southpaw.
The over/under isn’t going anywhere but down if it moves again, so get this bet in as soon as you can. Play: UNDER 10 (-115)
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Indians Under 7.5 (loss)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 42-37-6, +0.7 unit
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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