Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
First pitch: 12:10 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Julio Teheran (8-8, 3.53 ERA) vs. Tim Melville (1-0, 1.29 ERA)
O.K., this is going to be a tough one — as are pretty much most games at the one and only Coors Field. But let’s start with what we know we can build from.
First off, this is an unusual spot for both clubs, not just because it’s a makeup game of a postponed affair from their series in Colorado months ago, but also because of the notable distances each side took to arrive for today’s clash.
The Braves wrapped up a series in New York yesterday and will undoubtedly be unloading a couple of bench players at least in the starting lineup after their cross-country trek. Meanwhile, the Rockies just played in St. Louis, which also involved traveling to get back home for this early contest and figure to also sit some of their regulars. So, betting on this game will operate with tired hitters and without some key mashers.
Can the pitching hold up? Well, Teheran is one good hand to lean on based on his steadiness this season. He holds a solid 3.53 ERA and has limited opponents to three runs or fewer in 21 of 27 starts, not to mention accomplishing this in nine of his last 10. Even if he allows a little more than his norm, we can still get by, given the high total.
But, let’s also take note of the fact that Teheran is 6-1 lifetime against the Rockies alongside a splendid 2.87 ERA. That also includes a 2-1 mark with an acceptable 4.30 ERA in Colorado. If the Rockies are without a couple of starting position players, that only increases Teheran’s chances of etching another fine outing.
Of course, the most challenging part of this bet involves backing Melville, who is making just his fifth career major league start — and second of 2019 after not previously making an appearance in the big leagues in two years.
Melville was actually very good in that first assignment, taming a respectable Arizona Diamondbacks lineup on the road in yielding only one run and four baserunners in seven impressive innings.
Considering the 29-year-old is giving his all right now to hang in there at this level (he was in the Atlantic League earlier this season), I believe he can remain afloat and prove useful enough for an over/under this high. With there only being potential it goes up, wait first like I am before placing your wager. Play: UNDER 13
Yesterday’s Result: Phillies-Marlins Under 8 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 71-64-10, -0.9 unit
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit