Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
First pitch: 4:15 p.m. PT
TV: MLB Network
Probable pitchers: Jordan Lyles (10-8, 4.38 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (10-7, 2.99 ERA)
It isn’t often you can use the term “otherworldly” to describe a starting pitcher’s exceptional performance. In the case of Flaherty, though, it’s simply well-warranted if you’ve been tracking what the young right-hander has done since the season turned to the second half.
In his 11 post-All-Star break outings, Flaherty is 6-1 with an incredible 0.76 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP, both marks unsurprisingly ranking tops in the majors during this period. He’s also limited opposing hitters to a minuscule .151 batting average. Simply put, his second-half work is bordering on historic — and is certainly reminiscent of the regular dominance Jake Arrieta showed in the second half of 2015.
While Flaherty’s career 4.56 ERA opposite the Brewers is his highest against any division rival, that can be put aside when a starter is this completely locked in. Also, let’s not forget that Milwaukee is without its leader, National League MVP Award candidate Christian Yelich (knee), for the remainder of the season.
So long as Flaherty can do his thing here, just a fine showing here from Lyles can do the trick. And it looks like he’s become reliable again like he was in the first month of the campaign, as evident in the impressive 2.51 ERA and .201 batting average against he’s registered in his eight starts after being dealt to the Brewers.
When backing someone like Lyles that hasn’t been as proven throughout their career, you prefer them to be in a groove and that’s exactly the case for the nine-year veteran. Lyles has allowed no more than two runs in four consecutive starts entering this assignment, recording a 1.64 ERA within that span.
One of those outings came against these Cardinals, whom he kept to one run in 5.1 innings while tying a season-high with nine strikeouts.
For this bet, wait like I am up until first pitch to see if the total goes up to 8, which is possible given how the juice is currently allocated. Play: UNDER 7.5/8
Yesterday’s Result: Athletics-Rangers Under 11 (loss)
2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 81-73-10, -1.40 unit
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit