MLB Over/Under Bet: Can Gallen remain sizzling hot at Coors?

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Over/Under: 12

First pitch: 5:40 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Zac Gallen (2-3, 2.40 ERA) vs. Jon Gray (10-8, 4.06 ERA)

Oh boy. No matter what side of the total you’re on for a Coors Field game, it’s pretty much always going to be, as the late great Gorilla Monsoon would say, “a happening.”

But in this particular affair, I think there’s a pitching matchup that can keep the action under control for much of the duration.

One side will have a really hot rookie pitcher, Gallen, who has continued to surge even after surprisingly being dealt by the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline. Making his Diamondbacks debut last week against a potent Philadelphia Phillies lineup, the former third-round draft pick registered five impressive shutout innings while yielding only one hit.

Gallen churned out similar nice work in South Beach. In each of his seven starts with the Marlins, he allowed three runs or fewer. For half of his outings this season now, Gallen has been tagged for no more than a single earned run.

The beauty of relying on this talented youngster here is that he’ll have room for error. As always, a contest at Coors comes with a high over/under, so even if Gallen provides something outside his norm (and, say, gives up six runs), there’s still sizable room to work with. Considering his ability to limit the long ball (three home runs allowed in 41.1 innings), that can help Gallen hang.

And the other starter, Gray, is more than capable of picking up the slack if his counterpart falters. The fifth-year right-hander is enjoying one of his best campaigns to date, and part of that has been at the expense of the D-backs. While he doesn’t sport the most encouraging career numbers against Arizona, Gray has produced a solid 3.31 ERA in three meetings this season.

Gray’s familiarity with his hitting-friendly home park figures to aid him as well. Thus far in 2019, the former No. 3 overall draft pick has his second-lowest ERA at Coors (3.88) in his career. Notably, he’s surrendered eight home runs in Colorado in 67.1 total innings. Play: UNDER 12 (-105)

Yesterday’s Result: Rays-Padres Under 8.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 66-58-9, +1 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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