MLB Over/Under Bet: Can Lucchesi, Quintana survive Wrigley winds

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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

Over/Under: 12

First pitch: 11:20 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Joey Lucchesi (7-4, 3.92 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (7-7, 4.21 ERA)

Once again, those notorious Wrigley winds are set to act up today, hence why this solid pitching matchup has been tagged with such a high total. Even so, I’m going under.

The most important thing you’d like for these types of wagers at Wrigley Field is to have two starters who can keep the ball in the yard. Well, in this instance, we have Lucchesi, who has allowed an acceptable 1.16 HR/9, while Quintana has yielded 1.01 HR/9, which is 12th-lowest in the National League. Both left-handers don’t come with any outrageous flyball percentages, either.

Strikeouts would also be preferred and that’s something definitely attainable as it concerns Lucchesi. Since first debuting in the big leagues last season, the 26-year-old has recorded 9.39 K/9. Quintana isn’t as big with K’s as he used to be but he does get a lineup today that punches out frequently. In fact, San Diego records more strikeouts at the dish per game (9.73) than anyone in the league, and they strike out once every 3.46 at-bats with a southpaw on the hill. The Cubs, meanwhile, are retired via the K once every 3.44 at-bats against lefties.

Additionally, both clubs don’t exactly excel when dealing with left-handers. Chicago is third-from-the-bottom in baseball in that department in team batting average (.236), while the Padres rank 18th (.249). Thus, look for at least one of the two probables to continue delivering their steady brand of pitching, which could be enough for the under to prevail. Play: UNDER 12 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Rays Under 8.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 54-47-8, +1.5 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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