Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over/Under: 8.5
First pitch: 6:40 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Walker Buehler (5-1, 4.03 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (4-2, 3.59 ERA)
There’s no question the Dodgers are the best team in the National League, having a wide lead for the senior circuit’s best record (41-19) into the beginning of June.
A major reason for their dominance up to this point has been the production at the plate. L.A. has scored the most runs in the NL while also pacing the league in team batting average (.266) and OPS (.822).
But if there’s a kryptonite to this dangerous offense, it just might be Ray, who has made it a habit of containing the Dodgers during his five years with Arizona.
In fact, the 27-year-old southpaw has taken on Los Angeles more than anyone in his career (16 times) and collectively registered some stellar numbers, going 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA.
That doesn’t even tell the full story, as Ray has impressively limited the Dodgers to a real stingy .195/.298/.328 slash line and recorded 12.2 K/9 — to get a grasp of how exceptional that is, Ray faced 396 total batters in those 16 meetings and struck out nearly one-third (130) of them.
Buehler, who somewhat ironically didn’t get the day off today unlike just about all of baseball, is a nice opponent for Ray in this spot when trying to dig out an under.
Though the D-backs tagged the 2015 first-round draft pick for five runs back in his season debut, I think that was more a result of Buehler’s early-season struggles. He was the owner of an ugly 8.25 ERA after his first three starts but since then, he’s allowed more than three runs in an outing only once.
Thus, if he’s in regular form at the moment, we’ll be tapping into the rookie version of Buehler from a year ago that tossed two quality starts against the D-backs and held this division rival to just three runs and six hits combined across 12.1 total innings to go with 15 strikeouts.
For this under bet, you’re absolutely going to want to wait up until first pitch to see if the over/under goes up to 9, which could make all the difference. Considering how the juice is currently aligned, it’s possible that happens but I’ll be on this wager regardless. Make sure you follow me on Twitter to see when I make my play official. Play: UNDER 8.5/9
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Braves Under 9 (“loss”)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 32-28-6, +1 unit
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit